Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg Jets CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

-24
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL

Jets can't catch a break. 82 points vs 81.5 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help. Top driver: Close Games (-13.3 CLS impact). 16-24 in one-goal games (40% win rate vs expected 50%)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

82
Points
Expected: 81.5
231
Goals For
260
Goals Against
0.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Stars · at home
5-4
Lost at home against Stars

Lost 4-5 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

4
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Stars · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
Gm20 · 2025-11-21 · vs Hurricanes · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm22 · 2025-11-26 · vs Capitals · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Washington Capitals. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm74 · 2026-03-31 · vs Blackhawks · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Chicago Blackhawks 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm52 · 2026-01-27 · vs Devils · Away+0.9 pts
Edged New Jersey Devils 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm45 · 2026-01-13 · vs Islanders · Home+0.9 pts
Edged New York Islanders 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
16-24 in one-goal games (40% win rate vs expected 50%)
-13.3
Shootout Record
2-4 in shootouts (net -2)
-7.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (21 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.7
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+2.7
OT Loss Rate
12 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+0.4
Total CLS-24

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -24, Jets are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available