Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg Jets CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-23
CLS Score

Winnipeg Jets can't catch a break. 82 points vs 81.5 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

82
Points
Expected: 81.5
231
Goals For
260
Goals Against
0.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Dallas Stars · at home
4-5
Lost at home against Dallas Stars

Lost 4-5 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

4
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Dallas Stars · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
MW20 · 2025-11-21 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
MW22 · 2025-11-26 · vs Washington Capitals · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Washington Capitals. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW74 · 2026-03-31 · vs Chicago Blackhawks · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Chicago Blackhawks 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW52 · 2026-01-27 · vs New Jersey Devils · Away+0.9 pts
Edged New Jersey Devils 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW45 · 2026-01-13 · vs New York Islanders · Home+0.9 pts
Edged New York Islanders 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
16-24 in one-goal games (40% win rate vs expected 50%)
-12.7
Shootout Record
2-4 in shootouts (net -2)
-6.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (334 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.3
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+2.6
OT Loss Rate
12 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+0.3
Total CLS-23

Rank Per Signal

Where Winnipeg Jets ranks among NHL teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

6
Close Games
1
32
-12.7
6
Injury Burden
1
32
-6.3
9
Shootout Record
1
32
-6.9
16
OT Loss Rate
1
32
+0.3
17
Pythagorean Delta
1
32
+2.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -23, Winnipeg Jets are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available