Wolverhampton Wanderers have accumulated 17 points from 32 Premier League matches this season. According to every model that measures what should have happened, they should have 32. That 14.93-point gap between actual and expected is the largest in the division, and it sits at the heart of a Luck Index score of -58, the worst in the league by CURSD's methodology.
Seventeen points is relegation form. Thirty-two points is still relegation form, just the kind where you're scrapping and clawing and maybe, possibly surviving. The difference between those two realities is the width of Wolves' entire season.
The xPoints Chasm
Wolves' expected points tally of 31.93 would place them roughly five points higher in the actual table, likely sitting just outside the bottom three rather than anchored inside it. Their 3-8-21 record is historically grim, but those eight draws hint at something. This is a team that has been in matches. They've generated enough to deserve more from them. The xG model saw 28.63 goals' worth of chances created and 49.96 conceded, a net xG of -21.33. That is not good. But it is considerably less catastrophic than the actual goal difference of -34 suggests.
Finishing: 4.63 Goals That Never Arrived
Wolves have scored 24 goals from 299 shots, underperforming their xG by 4.63. In a season where margins are already razor-thin, nearly five missing goals is the difference between multiple draws flipping to wins and relegation looking like a mathematical certainty. This is not a team that has struggled to get into shooting positions. They've averaged just under 9.4 shots per match. They've simply failed to convert at the rate their chances warranted.
Four and a half goals spread across 32 matches sounds almost trivial. It is not.
A Defense Being Punished Beyond Its Crimes
The 58 goals conceded are ugly. But the expected goals against figure of 49.96, while still firmly in the bottom tier of the league, tells a different story about degree. Wolves have conceded 8.04 more goals than their defensive process should have produced. Opponents have been ruthlessly clinical against them, or fortune has simply refused to intervene. Likely both. When you concede 447 shots across 32 matches, you are giving the universe a lot of opportunities to hurt you. The universe has obliged.
Injuries and Schedule: Adding Weight to a Sinking Ship
Wolves' injury burden of 125 sits just above the league average of roughly 120, which means they cannot credibly blame a devastated squad for everything. This is a team that has been largely available and largely losing. The schedule strength of 1.27 is more telling. Wolves have faced a fixture list roughly 27% harder than the league average, meaning their underlying numbers have been compiled against stiffer opposition than most. That does not erase the negatives. It does provide context for them.
What the Curse Is, and What It Isn't
Honesty matters here. Wolves' net xG of -21.33 confirms they have been the weaker side in most of their matches. They are being outshot 447 to 299. They are not a good team being disguised as a bad one. They are a bad team being made to look historically terrible. The curse is real, but it is compounding existing weakness, not masking hidden quality. CURSD's Luck Index of -58 measures the gap between process and outcome, and that gap is enormous. But the process itself has been well below mid-table standard.
What Regression Could Still Buy Them
With six matches remaining, Wolves would need something close to a miracle even with full regression to expected performance. If they performed at their xPoints rate for the rest of the season, roughly one point per game, they'd add about six points to reach 23. That would still likely leave them short of safety. The curse has not cost Wolves their Premier League status on its own. But it has almost certainly cost them the chance to fight for it on fair terms. A 32-point pace across 38 games is a dogfight. A 17-point pace is a funeral.
The gap between those two things is not ability. It is simply what happened versus what the numbers say should have.