Blog/⚽ Premier League

Leeds 3-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Fair? CURSD Match Report

CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Fair (-11) | Leeds Fair (+11). xG: 1.65-0.53.

3 - 1
xG: 1.6 - 0.5
LeedsxG 1.65 β†’ 3 goals
BurnleyxG 0.53 β†’ 1 goal
CURSD Verdict
Burnley
-11
Fair 😐
Leeds
+11
Fair 😐
May 1, 2026

CURSD Match Report: Burnley 😐 Fair (-11) | Leeds 😐 Fair (+11)

Leeds created 1.65 xG. Burnley created 0.53 xG. The scoreboard read 3-1. The result broadly matches the underlying play.

The Data

StatLeedsBurnley
xG1.650.53
Goals31
Shots (on target)18 (8)9 (3)
Shots inside box115
Possession48%52%
Corners50
GK saves25
Fouls1211
Cards (Y/R)4/03/0

Key Events

8' Goal - A. Stach (assist: J. Bijol) (Leeds)

52' Goal - N. Okafor (assist: J. Bogle) (Leeds)

56' Goal - D. Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)

71' Goal - L. Tchaouna (assist: J. Anthony) (Burnley)

Verdict

- Leeds created 1.65 xG, scored 3 - Burnley created 0.53 xG, scored 1 - Burnley GK made 5 saves

CURSD Match Score: Burnley -11 (Fair) | Leeds +11 (Fair)

Neither team was significantly lucky or unlucky. The result reflects the balance of play.

Match Stats

LeedsBurnley
3Goals1
1.6xG0.5
18Shots9
48%Possession52%
Free

Liked this? Get more.

Weekly analysis like this one, in your inbox every Monday. 5 picks the CURSD way: cursed teams ripe for regression, blessed teams due to cool off.

No spam. One email per week. Unsubscribe anytime.

Share

Read next