Tottenham have scored 8.20 more goals than expected this season and are still 14th in the Premier League. That single fact tells you almost everything about how 2024-25 has gone at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where overperformance and underperformance have been happening simultaneously, in different departments, producing a season that looks mediocre on the surface and genuinely cursed underneath.
With a Luck Index of -24, Spurs rank as the fourth-most-cursed side in the Premier League this season, behind Wolves (-58), and two other clubs absorbing their own brands of statistical misfortune. But Tottenham's case might be the most structurally interesting of the lot, because the curse is not simple. It is layered, contradictory, and sitting inside a squad that was supposed to be competing for Europe.
The xPoints Gap: Four Points Lost to Variance
Tottenham's expected points total through 35 matches is 41.01. Their actual haul is 37. That gap of -4.01 points doesn't sound catastrophic until you consider the table density in the mid-range of the Premier League. Four points is the difference between 14th and the fringes of a European conversation. It is the difference between a season that feels like stagnation and one that at least gestures toward progress.
The 10 draws are the mechanism. Spurs have drawn more matches than any side outside the bottom five, and the xPoints model suggests several of those should have been wins. Tottenham are not drawing because they are cautious. They are drawing because they are converting chances at an elite rate and then conceding just enough to give the points back.
Finishing: The One Thing That's Working
A finishing delta of +8.20 goals means Tottenham have put away 45 goals from chances worth 36.8 xG. That is a significant overperformance. In most seasons, a team finishing this far above expected would be comfortably in the top half, possibly pushing for sixth.
The problem is that everything around the finishing has been poor. Spurs have taken 391 shots and faced 437, meaning they are being outshot on aggregate. They are not creating more than they concede. They are simply making the most of what they do create, which is, statistically, the least sustainable way to win football matches.
Defense: Where the Curse Lives
Tottenham have conceded 54 goals against an xGA of 50.24, a defensive variance of +3.76. That means opponents are also finishing above expected against Spurs, just not by as much. The defense is leaking, both in volume and in conversion.
Fifty goals conceded from expected is already poor. Fifty-four is worse. And those extra 3.76 goals are the quiet engine of the curse, the kind of variance that turns draws into losses and narrow leads into collapses.
Injuries and Schedule: The Compounding Factors
Tottenham's injury burden this season sits at 324, nearly three times the league average of roughly 120. That number alone would explain a significant portion of the inconsistency. Ange Postecoglou has not had a settled XI for any meaningful stretch, and the squad depth, while nominally adequate, has been tested past its structural limits.
Schedule strength of 1.19 means Spurs have faced a slightly above-average set of opponents. Not punishing, but not kind. Combined with the injury toll, it amounts to a season where the margins were always going to be thin, and Tottenham have been on the wrong side of them repeatedly.
Honesty Check: This Is Not a Secret Top-Six Team
A net xG of -13.44 is the number that keeps this analysis honest. Tottenham are being outplayed in underlying terms. They are conceding more expected goals than they create by a wide margin. The curse is real, the four-point xPoints gap is real, but regression to the mean would make Spurs a lower-mid-table side, not a European contender. The finishing has masked the creation problem. The injuries have deepened it.
Four extra points would not fix this season. They would just make it legible.
What's Left
With three matches remaining, Tottenham's most realistic ceiling is around 44 points. If variance corrects even slightly, they could pick up a win and a draw from the remaining fixtures. That would place them closer to where xPoints says they belong, a minor comfort in a season where the underlying model and the actual results have been telling two slightly different stories about the same deeply flawed team.