Hellas Verona have created enough chances to be a mid-table side. They have conceded at a rate that should have them clear of the drop zone. Their expected points total, 42.16, would place them comfortably in the middle of Serie A. They have 20 points. The gap between what the data says Verona should be and what Verona actually are is 22.16 points, one of the largest xPoints deficits in any major European league this season.
While Pisa hold the unenviable crown of Serie A's most cursed team with a Luck Index of -81, Verona's case is arguably more painful. Pisa are in Serie B. Verona are in the top flight, where a 22-point swing is the difference between safety and oblivion.
The 22-Point Void
Verona's 42.16 expected points would have them sitting around 14th in Serie A. Instead, 3 wins, 11 draws, and 22 losses have them anchored to the bottom of the table with 20 points. That -22.16 xPoints delta is not a rounding error. It is an entire season's worth of results vanishing into variance. Eleven draws suggest a team that keeps getting into positions to win and then doesn't. The model sees a side that should have converted many of those draws into victories. The scoreboard saw something else entirely.
The Finishing Crater
This is where the curse is loudest. Verona have generated 33.62 xG from 400 shots across 36 matches. They have scored 24 goals. That finishing delta of -9.62 means they have left nearly ten goals on the pitch, goals the quality of their chances said they should have scored. To put it plainly, Verona are missing the equivalent of roughly one goal every four games that an average finishing team would have buried.
Ten goals sounds abstract. Spread across a season, it is the difference between a draw and a win, a loss and a draw, over and over and over again.
A Defense That Got Mugged
Verona's expected goals against stands at 44.41. They have conceded 58. That is 13.59 goals more than the quality of chances they allowed should have produced. Their opponents haven't just been finishing well. They have been finishing at a rate that borders on supernatural. Verona are being outshot, 477 against to 400 for, so they are not some defensive fortress getting unlucky. They are a below-average defensive team getting results that make them look catastrophic.
This is important. The underlying model already accounts for the fact that Verona give up too many chances. The 13.59-goal defensive variance is punishment on top of punishment.
What the Curse Is Not
Honesty matters here. Verona's net xG is -10.79. They are being outshot. Their schedule strength of 1.22 means they have faced a slightly harder-than-average slate of opponents. This is not a secretly elite team. This is a team whose underlying numbers say they are bad, and whose actual results say they are historically terrible. The curse is the distance between bad and terrible. A 42-point team looks like a survivor. A 20-point team looks like a side that never belonged.
Notably, injuries are not the culprit. Verona's injury burden of 65 is nearly half the league average of 120. They have been healthy. They just haven't been lucky.
Sometimes you do everything except finish and the universe still sends the invoice.
What Regression Would Actually Buy Them
With two matches remaining, Verona cannot claw back 22 points of variance. Even if finishing and defensive luck normalized completely over the final fixtures, we are talking about the difference between one or two additional points. The damage is done. The season is the season.
But the data leaves a clear message for next year, assuming Verona survive or return. A team that generates 33.62 xG and allows 44.41 xGA is not good. It is also not a 20-point team. If finishing regresses to the mean, if opponents stop converting at absurd rates, this squad is probably worth something in the low-to-mid 40s. That is survival. That is anonymity. That is, for Hellas Verona, the dream.
Their CURSD Luck Index sits at -59, second in Serie A. The numbers didn't save them. But the numbers remember.