Bottom line: Venezia have earned exactly zero points from nearly five expected points, making them Serie A's most statistically cursed team.
Through October 3, 2026, Venezia are the only side in Serie A without a point. Five matches, five losses, zero draws, zero wins. That 0-0-5 record is grim on its own. But according to FBref data, their expected-points total sits at 4.88, meaning the gap between what the underlying numbers say Venezia should have and what they actually have is the largest in the Italian top flight. The CURSD Luck Index quantifies this at -22, the worst mark in Serie A. They are the league's most cursed team.
They are also, to be clear, not a good team. Both things are true at once.
The xPoints gap: 4.88 points that don't exist
Venezia's expected-points delta of -4.88 is the single most damning number in their profile. In a league where a draw is worth a point and the margins between survival and relegation are often decided by three or four points across an entire season, nearly five points of negative variance through five matches is extraordinary. At a rate like this over 38 games, they would finish roughly 37 points below where the quality of their chances would suggest. That is not sustainable. Regression will come. But regression does not refund September.
Finishing: 3.4 goals left on the table
Venezia have generated 7.4 xG across five matches and scored 4 goals. That finishing delta of -3.40 is the engine of the curse. They are creating at a rate of nearly 1.5 xG per match, which is perfectly respectable for a promoted side. They are converting at a rate that makes it look like the goals are actively avoiding the net.
For context, 70 shots taken in five games is nearly identical to the 72 they have faced. They are not being outshot in any meaningful way. They are being outfinished.
Defense: Leaky, but honestly not catastrophically so
Thirteen goals conceded sounds like a crisis, and it partly is. But the defensive variance of +1.28, the gap between goals conceded and the 11.72 xGA, tells a more modest story. Opponents are slightly overperforming against Venezia's defense, but only by about a quarter of a goal per match. The real problem is not some historically porous backline. It is that their attack is failing to hold up its end of the bargain.
Their net xG of -4.32 confirms they are being outplayed on balance. This is not a team that deserves to be in the top half. But it is a team that deserves more than nothing.
Injuries and schedule: Two things that aren't cursed
Not every metric points toward misfortune. Venezia's injury burden sits at 33, well below the league average of roughly 120. And their schedule strength grades at 0.5 against a baseline of 1.0, meaning they have faced a softer-than-average slate of opponents.
| Factor | Venezia | Serie A avg |
|---|---|---|
| Injury burden | 33 | ~120 |
| Schedule strength | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Yellow cards | 16 | Varies |
They have been healthy. They have had a favorable calendar. They still have zero points. That makes the finishing drought and the xPoints gap all the more painful.
What regression would actually buy them
If Venezia's finishing reverts to league-average conversion rates and their defensive variance flattens, the math suggests they become a team capable of collecting roughly a point per match. That pace across 33 remaining games would yield something in the neighborhood of 33 points, which has historically hovered near the relegation line in Serie A.
Survival, in other words, is the realistic ceiling if the luck normalizes. Not comfort. Not midtable security. Just a mathematically plausible argument for staying up.
The curse will lift eventually. Whether it lifts in time is a different question, and one that 4.88 missing points have already made harder to answer.