Bottom line: Sassuolo have lost 3.23 points to variance this season, more than any other side in Serie A.
Through October 31, 2026, Sassuolo sit on 8 points from nine matches. According to expected-points models tracked via FBref data, they should have 11.23. That 3.23-point gap is the largest negative delta in the Italian top flight, earning them a Luck Index of -26 and the undisputed title of Serie A's most cursed team. What makes the case interesting, and a little painful, is that the curse is layered on top of a team that was already struggling.
They are not a good team being mistaken for a bad one. They are a below-average team being made to look awful.
The xPoints Gap: Three Points That Never Arrived
Sassuolo's 2-2-5 record tells a story of a side in the bottom third. Their expected record, based on an xPoints total of 11.23, tells a kinder one. Three additional points would push them toward 11, roughly the territory of mid-table anonymity rather than relegation anxiety. That gap of -3.23 represents at least one draw that should have been a win and one loss that should have been a draw, outcomes that flipped on moments no model could have predicted.
Finishing: The One Thing Working
If there is a bright spot in Sassuolo's season, it is their attack's relationship with its own chances. They have scored 14 goals against an xG of 12.9, a finishing delta of +1.10. That modest overperformance means Sassuolo's forwards are converting at a rate slightly above expectation, squeezing an extra goal from chances that, on paper, did not all demand one. From 126 shots, they are getting roughly what they should. This is not a team being let down by its strikers.
Defense: Where the Curse Lives
The defense is another matter entirely. Sassuolo have conceded 22 goals from an xGA of 15.55, a defensive variance of +6.45. That is not a rounding error. That is nearly a goal per match above what the quality of chances against them would suggest.
| Metric | Expected | Actual | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 12.9 xG | 14 | +1.10 |
| Goals conceded | 15.55 xGA | 22 | +6.45 |
| Points | 11.23 xPts | 8 | -3.23 |
Opponents are finishing at an unsustainable rate against Sassuolo's goalkeeper and backline. Some of that may be structural, poor positioning on second balls, lapses at set pieces. But 6.45 goals of overperformance by the opposition across nine matches is extreme. Regression should bring relief. When it arrives is the more honest question.
Injuries and Schedule: Stacking the Deck
Sassuolo's injury burden sits at 163, well above the league average of roughly 120. Losing players to the treatment room is not luck in the purest sense, but the downstream effects compound every other problem. Fewer rotation options, more fatigue, less tactical flexibility. Meanwhile, their schedule strength rating of 1.26 means they have faced a fixture list roughly 26% harder than the league average. That combination, a depleted squad against above-average opposition, is a reliable recipe for variance to bite harder than it otherwise would.
What Regression Could Actually Buy Them
If Sassuolo's defensive variance regresses even halfway toward the mean over the next nine matches, they could expect to concede three to four fewer goals than they have been. Combined with a schedule that should soften as they rotate through the bottom half of the table, their xPoints pace of roughly 1.25 per match could start converting into actual points at a closer rate. That projects to something like 14 to 16 points from their next nine, enough to stay above the dotted line.
But regression is not guaranteed to arrive on time, and Sassuolo's underlying numbers, a net xG of -2.65, being outshot 141 to 126, remind us that even the corrected version of this team is below average. The curse is real. It is also not the only problem.