Bottom line: Serie A's finishing variance through nine rounds is historically wide, and several clubs are living on borrowed time in both directions.
Through October 28, 2026, the gap between goals scored and expected goals (xG) across Serie A tells a story that the table alone cannot. Finishing luck, sometimes called conversion variance, measures the difference between the quality of chances a team creates and the goals they actually put away. According to FBref data, the spread this season is dramatic. A team outperforming its xG is not necessarily better. A team underperforming it is not necessarily worse. They are, for now, luckier or unluckier than average. And average, historically, always comes calling.
Most Cursed by Finishing
| Rank | Team | Goals | xG | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezia | 6 | 12.7 | -6.7 |
| 2 | Cagliari | 8 | 11.6 | -3.6 |
| 3 | Fiorentina | 9 | 11.8 | -2.8 |
| 4 | Bologna | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 |
| 5 | Lecce | 9 | 11.1 | -2.1 |
1. Venezia have scored 6 goals from 12.7 xG, a deficit of -6.7 that leads all of European football's top five leagues. They are creating the chances of a midtable side and finishing like a team that forgot what the net looks like. 2. Cagliari have managed 8 goals against 11.6 xG. Their strikers are doing less with more, a pattern that rarely persists past December. 3. Fiorentina sit at 9 goals from 11.8 xG. The chance creation is there. The finishing is not. This is a club whose underlying numbers suggest they are better than their record indicates. 4. Bologna, with 8 goals from 10.6 xG, are underperforming by 2.6 goals. Modest, but enough to be the difference between draws and wins in a tight midtable. 5. Lecce round out the cursed five, converting 9 goals from 11.1 xG. Not catastrophic, but enough to leave points on the pitch.
Venezia's -6.7 deficit deserves its own moment of silence.
Most Blessed by Finishing
| Rank | Team | Goals | xG | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 22 | 15.4 | +6.6 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 17 | 12.6 | +4.4 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 23 | 20.1 | +2.9 |
| 4 | Torino | 14 | 11.8 | +2.2 |
| 5 | Atalanta | 14 | 11.9 | +2.1 |
1. Lazio have converted 15.4 xG into 22 goals, a +6.6 surplus that mirrors Venezia's deficit almost perfectly. Their finishing has been elite. The question is whether it is sustainable. 2. Frosinone are punching well above their expected weight, netting 17 from 12.6 xG. A +4.4 overperformance this large from a promoted side is a red flag for regression. 3. AS Roma, with 23 goals from 20.1 xG, are creating genuinely dangerous chances and adding a modest finishing bonus on top. Of the blessed five, their surplus looks the most defensible. 4. Torino have found 14 goals from 11.8 xG. A quiet +2.2 that flatters their current standing. 5. Atalanta sit at 14 goals from 11.9 xG, a +2.1 margin. Comfortable, not extreme.
What This Tells Us
The range from Venezia's -6.7 to Lazio's +6.6 spans 13.3 goals of finishing variance. That is enormous through nine matchdays. Historical xG research, most notably from StatsBomb and academic work on conversion rates, consistently shows that finishing variance regresses heavily toward zero over a full season. Roughly 70-80% of early-season overperformance or underperformance corrects by spring.
Neither Venezia nor Lazio are likely to sustain these extremes. The former should score more. The latter probably won't keep scoring quite this much.
The table lies. The chances don't.
