Bottom line: Gladbach are genuinely bad and genuinely unlucky, a combination that has produced the Bundesliga's most cursed start to the season.
Through October 10, 2026, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit on zero points from four Bundesliga matches. Zero wins, zero draws, four losses. They have scored six goals and conceded sixteen. On paper it reads like capitulation. Underneath it, according to FBref expected-goals data, there is something slightly more complicated and considerably more painful going on. Their CURSD Luck Index of -21 is the worst in the Bundesliga, and it is not particularly close.
The xPoints Gap: 3.38 Points That Don't Exist
Gladbach's expected points total through four matchdays is 3.38. Their actual total is 0. That delta of -3.38 is the single largest gap between expected and actual in the German top flight. In practical terms, a fair universe would have given Gladbach a win and a draw from these four fixtures, placing them in the mid-table cluster rather than dead last with a historic blank.
Three points is not a rescue. But it is the difference between crisis and early-season turbulence.
Finishing: Slightly Cold, Not Frozen
The finishing picture is mild. Gladbach have generated 6.88 xG from 66 shots and converted six goals, a finishing delta of -0.88. That is not a drought. It is a rounding error, the kind of underperformance that corrects itself within a few weeks of normal variance.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shots taken | 66 |
| xG generated | 6.88 |
| Goals scored | 6 |
| Finishing delta | -0.88 |
The attack, in other words, is not the primary source of the curse. It is roughly performing to expectation. The problem is elsewhere.
Defense: Where the Curse Actually Lives
Sixteen goals conceded against an xGA of 11.69 produces a defensive variance of +4.31 goals. That is an enormous number over four matches. It means opponents are converting chances at a rate well above what the quality of those chances would suggest. Every speculative effort, every deflection, every second ball has found the net.
But honesty matters here. The xGA of 11.69 itself is bad. Gladbach are being outshot 75 to 66. They are conceding nearly three expected goals per game. This is not a stingy defense getting robbed. It is a leaky defense getting robbed on top of already being leaky.
They are both unlucky and structurally porous. The curse is real. So is the problem.
Schedule and Injuries: The Dog That Didn't Bite
Remarkably, the schedule has not been the issue. Gladbach's schedule strength rating of 0.33, where 1.0 is average, indicates they have faced a below-average set of opponents. They have had the easy fixtures. They lost all of them.
Their injury burden of 51 is also well below the league average of roughly 120, meaning the squad has been largely available. These are two areas where cursed teams typically find excuses. Gladbach cannot.
| Factor | Gladbach | League Avg |
|---|---|---|
| Schedule strength | 0.33 | 1.0 |
| Injury burden | 51 | ~120 |
| Yellow cards | 13 | - |
| Red cards | 1 | - |
The 13 yellows and one red in four matches do hint at a team that is scrambling, fouling to compensate for structural disorganization. That tracks.
What Regression Would Actually Buy Them
If Gladbach's defensive variance regressed fully to zero and their finishing normalized, the math suggests they would have conceded roughly 12 goals instead of 16 and scored 7 instead of 6. Run that through the remaining 30 fixtures and you get a team capable of accumulating points at a rate near 0.85 per match, enough for low-to-mid 30s in the final table. Survival range, not comfort.
Regression does not make Gladbach good. A net xG of -4.81 over four games is a team being outplayed. But it makes them viable, which right now they do not look.
Sometimes the universe just needs a few weeks to pay you back. The question is whether the table will still be recoverable when it does.