Bottom line: Gladbach's 4.5-point deficit to expected points is the Bundesliga's worst variance, while Elversberg is riding 5.5 points of pure overperformance.
Through November 4, 2026, we can run every Bundesliga match through xG-based Poisson simulations to generate expected points (xPoints) for each club, then compare those projections to actual standings. The gap between the two, the xpts-gap, isolates the role of finishing variance, goalkeeper heroics, set-piece chaos, and old-fashioned randomness. According to FBref data, the spread across the league this season runs from minus-4.5 to plus-5.5, a 10-point swing that the table itself does nothing to explain. It matters because points influenced heavily by variance tend to regress. The table lies. The simulations don't care.
Most Cursed by xpts-gap
| Rank | Club | Actual Pts | xPoints | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 |
| 2 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 13.3 | -4.3 |
| 3 | FSV Mainz 05 | 10 | 13.9 | -3.9 |
| 4 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 11.3 | -2.3 |
| 5 | Bayern München | 18 | 19.9 | -1.9 |
1. Borussia Mönchengladbach are generating chances worth 8.5 xPoints and walking away with 4. That is a relegation-zone record built on mid-table underlying performance, which is both reassuring and infuriating. 2. 1899 Hoffenheim should be sitting on 13.3 xPoints, comfortably in the top half. Instead they have 9, the kind of deficit that usually involves at least two late equalizers conceded and a wrongly disallowed goal. 3. FSV Mainz 05 carry a 3.9-point gap (10 vs. 13.9 xPoints), making them the Bundesliga's most quietly hard-done-by side. 4. 1. FC Köln at 9 actual points versus 11.3 expected are losing roughly a win's worth of value to variance. Modest but persistent. 5. Bayern München at 18 points versus 19.9 xPoints barely register here. Even their bad luck is modest.
Bayern being cursed is like finding a scratch on a Porsche.
Most Blessed by xpts-gap
| Rank | Club | Actual Pts | xPoints | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SV Elversberg | 13 | 7.5 | +5.5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 13.4 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 10.9 | +4.1 |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 16 | 13.7 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
1. SV Elversberg sit on 13 points from performances worth 7.5. That 5.5-point surplus is the league's largest. Enjoy it while the math allows. 2. Borussia Dortmund are level with Bayern on 18 points, but their xPoints say 13.4. A 4.6-point gap suggests this title challenge has a significant luck subsidy. 3. Werder Bremen at 15 actual versus 10.9 expected are banking 4.1 points of variance. Clinical finishing or fortunate bounces, the result is the same. 4. SC Freiburg carry a quieter 2.3-point surplus (16 vs. 13.7 xPoints), consistent with their usual ability to squeeze value from modest resources. 5. Hamburger SV at plus-1.7 (9 vs. 7.3) round out the blessed. Small margins, but in a tight mid-table, 1.7 points is the difference between optimism and panic.
What This Tells Us
The full spread, Gladbach's minus-4.5 to Elversberg's plus-5.5, covers 10 points across roughly nine matchdays. Historically in the Bundesliga, xpts-gaps of this magnitude regress by 60 to 70 percent over the remainder of a season. That means Elversberg's 13 points are likely performing above a sustainable pace, while Gladbach's underlying quality suggests they should climb well clear of the bottom. Dortmund's title credentials look softer under the hood than the raw table implies, and Hoffenheim's struggles may ease without any tactical overhaul at all. Variance giveth, variance taketh. It also, eventually, corrects.
