Blog/⚽ Premier League

Arsenal Win It, but the Data Disagrees

xG: Nottingham Forest 0.9 - 1.2 Arsenal. Nottingham Forest on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-1.

0 - 1
xG: 0.9 - 1.2
Nottingham ForestxG 0.94 β†’ 0 goals
0.94 xG left on the table
ArsenalxG 1.16 β†’ 1 goal
CURSD Verdict
Nottingham Forest
-53
Cursed πŸ’€
Arsenal
+53
Blessed 🎰
October 18, 2026

CURSD Match Report: Nottingham Forest πŸ’€ Cursed (-53) | Arsenal 🎰 Blessed (+53)

Nottingham Forest created 0.94 xG. Arsenal created 1.16 xG. The scoreboard read 0-1. The data says Nottingham Forest deserved more from this match.

The Data

StatNottingham ForestArsenal
xG0.941.16
Goals01
Shots (on target)14 (2)9 (1)
Shots inside box87
Possession26%74%
Corners86
GK saves02
Fouls148
Cards (Y/R)1/01/0

Key Events

80' Goal - Noni Madueke (assist: Declan Rice) (Arsenal)

Verdict

- Nottingham Forest created 0.94 xG, scored 0 - Nottingham Forest: 8 shots inside box, 0 goals

CURSD Match Score: Nottingham Forest -53 (Cursed) | Arsenal +53 (Blessed)

The xG share gap between process and outcome defines this match's luck signature. Nottingham Forest were robbed by the data's standards.

Match Stats

Nottingham ForestArsenal
0Goals1
0.9xG1.2
14Shots9
26%Possession74%
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Common Questions

Arsenal Win It, but the Data Disagrees?

xG: Nottingham Forest 0.9 - 1.2 Arsenal. Nottingham Forest on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-1.

Which team is the most cursed in Premier League?

Nottingham Forest currently has the lowest CURSD Luck Score in Premier League: xG: Nottingham Forest 0.9 - 1.2 Arsenal. Nottingham Forest on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-1.

Which team is the most blessed in Premier League?

Arsenal currently has the highest CURSD Luck Score in Premier League.

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