The CURSD Luck Score measures how much a team's results are running ahead of or behind their underlying performance. The same logic, applied one layer down, identifies which FPL assets are riding luck and which are due a bounce. Here's the regression watch for Gameweek 33 based on goals vs expected goals (xG).
Sell Candidates — Goals Far Above xG
These players have scored at least 1.5 goals above their xG total. Finishing this hot historically does not persist. The fantasy returns are real, but the underlying data does not support them continuing.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson (MID) | Fulham | £6.0 | 22.4% | 10 | 5.5 | +4.5 |
| Semenyo (MID) | Man City | £8.2 | 51.6% | 15 | 10.5 | +4.5 |
| Kroupi.Jr (FWD) | Bournemouth | £4.6 | 5.7% | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 |
| Bruno G. (MID) | Newcastle | £6.8 | 4.4% | 9 | 5.0 | +4.0 |
| Dewsbury-Hall (MID) | Everton | £5.1 | 5.6% | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 |
| Casemiro (MID) | Man Utd | £5.7 | 3.8% | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 |
| Gibbs-White (MID) | Nott'm Forest | £7.5 | 8.7% | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 |
| Anthony (MID) | Burnley | £5.0 | 1.9% | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 |
Buy the Dip — Goals Below xG
These players are creating the chances but the goals haven't followed. A drop of 1 or more goals below xG is meaningful. The shots are there. Conversion regresses to expected eventually.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schade (MID) | Brentford | £7.0 | 1.7% | 7 | 11.0 | -4.0 |
| Evanilson (FWD) | Bournemouth | £6.7 | 2.7% | 6 | 9.6 | -3.6 |
| Delap (FWD) | Chelsea | £6.2 | 0.9% | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| Mateta (FWD) | Crystal Palace | £7.6 | 7.4% | 10 | 13.1 | -3.1 |
| Martinelli (MID) | Arsenal | £6.8 | 0.9% | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 |
| Gordon (MID) | Newcastle | £7.4 | 6.2% | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 |
| Enzo (MID) | Chelsea | £6.5 | 11.8% | 8 | 10.8 | -2.8 |
| Calvert-Lewin (FWD) | Leeds | £5.7 | 10.4% | 11 | 13.8 | -2.8 |
Every Team — Most-Owned Attackers
Arsenal — Arsenal as a team has scored 6 goals above their season xG total — finishing has been hot. Most-owned attackers: Rice (25% owned, Δ +0.9) · Gyökeres (12% owned, Δ +1.8) · Eze (8% owned, Δ +2.0).
Burnley — Burnley as a team has scored 5 goals above their season xG total — finishing has been hot. Most-owned attackers: Anthony (2% owned, Δ +2.6) · A.Ramsey (1% owned, Δ 0.0) · Barnes (1% owned, Δ -0.1).
Aston Villa — Aston Villa as a team has scored 5 goals above their season xG total — finishing has been hot. Most-owned attackers: Rogers (24% owned, Δ +2.5) · Watkins (14% owned, Δ -1.1) · McGinn (1% owned, Δ +1.3).
Manchester City — Manchester City as a team has scored 4 goals above their season xG total — finishing has been hot. Most-owned attackers: Haaland (57% owned, Δ +0.5) · Semenyo (52% owned, Δ +4.5) · Cherki (10% owned, Δ +0.3).
Manchester United — Manchester United's finishing has tracked their xG closely. Most-owned attackers: B.Fernandes (46% owned, Δ -2.4) · Mbeumo (18% owned, Δ +1.0) · Cunha (10% owned, Δ +1.8).
Sunderland — Sunderland's finishing has tracked their xG closely. Most-owned attackers: Xhaka (3% owned, Δ +0.2) · Isidor (1% owned, Δ +0.6) · E.Le Fée (1% owned, Δ -0.6).
West Ham — West Ham's finishing has tracked their xG closely. Most-owned attackers: Bowen (14% owned, Δ +1.5) · Summerville (1% owned, Δ -0.1) · L.Paquetá (1% owned, Δ +1.1).
Fulham — Fulham's finishing has tracked their xG closely. Most-owned attackers: Wilson (22% owned, Δ +4.5) · Raúl (2% owned, Δ -2.2) · Iwobi (2% owned, Δ +2.6).
Everton — Everton's finishing has tracked their xG closely. Most-owned attackers: Grealish (6% owned, Δ -0.0) · Dewsbury-Hall (6% owned, Δ +3.3) · Ndiaye (5% owned, Δ +0.9).
Liverpool — Liverpool's finishing has tracked their xG closely. Most-owned attackers: Ekitiké (20% owned, Δ +0.9) · M.Salah (16% owned, Δ -0.9) · Szoboszlai (14% owned, Δ +1.1).
Nottingham Forest — Nottingham Forest's finishing has tracked their xG closely. Most-owned attackers: Gibbs-White (9% owned, Δ +2.6) · Anderson (7% owned, Δ -0.6) · Wood (5% owned, Δ -1.1).
Newcastle — Newcastle's finishing has tracked their xG closely. Most-owned attackers: Woltemade (7% owned, Δ +0.6) · Gordon (6% owned, Δ -2.8) · Bruno G. (4% owned, Δ +4.0).
Brighton — Brighton's finishing has tracked their xG closely. Most-owned attackers: Welbeck (8% owned, Δ +1.2) · Minteh (2% owned, Δ -1.3) · Mitoma (2% owned, Δ -0.6).
Bournemouth — Bournemouth has scored 4 goals below their season xG — finishing has been cold. Most-owned attackers: Kroupi.Jr (6% owned, Δ +4.1) · Tavernier (4% owned, Δ -2.5) · Scott (3% owned, Δ -0.8).
Wolves — Wolves has scored 5 goals below their season xG — finishing has been cold. Most-owned attackers: Fraser (2% owned, Δ 0.0) · Mané (2% owned, Δ +0.5) · Gonzalez (1% owned, Δ 0.0).
Leeds — Leeds has scored 5 goals below their season xG — finishing has been cold. Most-owned attackers: Calvert-Lewin (10% owned, Δ -2.8) · Stach (2% owned, Δ +1.5) · Okafor (1% owned, Δ +2.1).
Brentford — Brentford has scored 5 goals below their season xG — finishing has been cold. Most-owned attackers: Thiago (35% owned, Δ +1.9) · O.Dango (3% owned, Δ -0.8) · Schade (2% owned, Δ -4.0).
Chelsea — Chelsea has scored 9 goals below their season xG — finishing has been cold. Most-owned attackers: João Pedro (45% owned, Δ +0.3) · Palmer (17% owned, Δ -0.2) · Enzo (12% owned, Δ -2.8).
Crystal Palace — Crystal Palace has scored 14 goals below their season xG — finishing has been cold. Most-owned attackers: Mateta (7% owned, Δ -3.1) · Sarr (4% owned, Δ -1.0) · Johnson (2% owned, Δ -0.2).
How To Read This
FPL ownership signals the conventional wisdom; the Δ column signals where conventional wisdom is built on hot finishing rather than sustainable underlying numbers. None of this is a transfer recommendation — your team context, captaincy, fixtures, and chips all matter. But ignoring goals-vs-xG when a player is over 1.5 above is leaving information on the table.
For live data and all 20 teams, see /fpl-watch.