Who to Sell. Who to Buy.
Every Premier League team's 5 most-owned attackers, tagged by whether their goals are above or below xG. Above = unsustainable, sell candidate. Below = underperforming, buy the dip. Built on the same finishing variance that drives the CURSD Luck Score.
Sell Candidates
Goals exceed xG by 1.5 or more — finishing has been hot, returns likely to dry up.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson MID | Fulham | £6.0 | 22.4% | 10 | 5.5 | +4.5 | 2.5 |
| Semenyo MID | Manchester City | £8.2 | 51.6% | 15 | 10.5 | +4.5 | 2.3 |
| Kroupi.Jr FWD | Bournemouth | £4.6 | 5.7% | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 | 5.3 |
| Bruno G. MID | Newcastle | £6.8 | 4.4% | 9 | 5.0 | +4.0 | 0.5 |
| Dewsbury-Hall MID | Everton | £5.1 | 5.6% | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | 7.5 |
| Casemiro MID | Manchester United | £5.7 | 3.8% | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | 7.0 |
| Gibbs-White MID | Nottingham Forest | £7.5 | 8.7% | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 | 11.0 |
| Anthony MID | Burnley | £5.0 | 1.9% | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | 2.0 |
| Iwobi MID | Fulham | £6.3 | 1.8% | 4 | 1.4 | +2.6 | 1.5 |
| Rogers MID | Aston Villa | £7.4 | 24.3% | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 7.0 |
| Zubimendi MID | Arsenal | £5.0 | 3.1% | 5 | 2.8 | +2.2 | 3.0 |
| Okafor MID | Leeds | £5.5 | 1.3% | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 10.3 |
| Eze MID | Arsenal | £7.2 | 7.8% | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 1.5 |
| Thiago FWD | Brentford | £7.4 | 35.3% | 21 | 19.1 | +1.9 | 7.5 |
| Cunha MID | Manchester United | £8.0 | 9.6% | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | 4.0 |
| Gyökeres FWD | Arsenal | £8.8 | 12.2% | 12 | 10.3 | +1.8 | 3.0 |
| Foden MID | Manchester City | £8.0 | 7.8% | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | 0.7 |
| Caicedo MID | Chelsea | £5.7 | 7.4% | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 | 2.0 |
| Stach MID | Leeds | £4.8 | 1.7% | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 0.0 |
Buy the Dip
Goals trail xG by 1.0 or more — chances are there, finishing is due to convert.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schade MID | Brentford | £7.0 | 1.7% | 7 | 11.0 | -4.0 | 4.0 |
| Evanilson FWD | Bournemouth | £6.7 | 2.7% | 6 | 9.6 | -3.6 | 3.7 |
| Mateta FWD | Crystal Palace | £7.6 | 7.5% | 10 | 13.1 | -3.1 | 6.5 |
| Gordon MID | Newcastle | £7.4 | 6.2% | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 1.5 |
| Enzo MID | Chelsea | £6.5 | 11.7% | 8 | 10.8 | -2.8 | 1.3 |
| Calvert-Lewin FWD | Leeds | £5.7 | 10.4% | 11 | 13.8 | -2.8 | 3.3 |
| Tavernier MID | Bournemouth | £5.4 | 4.1% | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 3.7 |
| B.Fernandes MID | Manchester United | £10.3 | 46.3% | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 | 5.0 |
| Raúl FWD | Fulham | £6.1 | 2.3% | 9 | 11.2 | -2.2 | 1.0 |
| Wirtz MID | Liverpool | £8.3 | 9.2% | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 4.0 |
| Marc Guiu FWD | Chelsea | £4.0 | 5.3% | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 0.3 |
| Elanga MID | Newcastle | £6.5 | 2.7% | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 1.5 |
| Devenny MID | Crystal Palace | £4.3 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 0.5 |
| King MID | Fulham | £4.4 | 1.8% | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 1.0 |
| Minteh MID | Brighton | £5.5 | 2.4% | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 2.3 |
| Muniz FWD | Fulham | £5.3 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 2.0 |
| Wood FWD | Nottingham Forest | £7.1 | 4.5% | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 1.5 |
| Watkins FWD | Aston Villa | £8.7 | 14.3% | 11 | 12.1 | -1.1 | 9.0 |
| Gakpo MID | Liverpool | £7.3 | 5.9% | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 5.5 |
| Sarr MID | Crystal Palace | £6.3 | 3.8% | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | 1.0 |
| Igor Jesus FWD | Nottingham Forest | £5.8 | 1.6% | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 4.5 |
All Teams — Most-Owned Attackers
Wolves has scored 5 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Leeds has scored 5 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Chelsea has scored 9 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Newcastle's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
West Ham's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Crystal Palace has scored 14 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Burnley has scored 5 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Nottingham Forest's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Bournemouth has scored 4 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Brentford has scored 5 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Brighton's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Liverpool's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Fulham's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Arsenal has scored 6 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Manchester United's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Everton's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Manchester City has scored 4 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Sunderland's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Aston Villa has scored 5 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Source: official FPL API (fantasy.premierleague.com) for prices and ownership. xG aggregated from FPL's underlying provider. Verdicts derived from finishing delta (goals − xG). Not betting or fantasy advice — review your own team context before transferring.