Who to Sell. Who to Buy.
Every Premier League team's 5 most-owned attackers, tagged by whether their goals are above or below xG. Above = unsustainable, sell candidate. Below = underperforming, buy the dip. Built on the same finishing variance that drives the CURSD Luck Score.
Sell Candidates
Goals exceed xG by 1.5 or more — finishing has been hot, returns likely to dry up.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherki MID | Manchester City | £8.0 | 38.1% | 4 | 1.3 | +2.7 | 5.0 |
| Haaland FWD | Manchester City | £15.7 | 76.9% | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | 9.5 |
| Belloumi MID | Hull City | £5.2 | 9.1% | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0 | 4.0 |
| João Pedro FWD | Chelsea | £7.9 | 73.0% | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | 7.0 |
| Rogers MID | Chelsea | £8.0 | 48.3% | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 | 5.5 |
| Neto MID | Chelsea | £6.5 | 2.7% | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 | 10.0 |
| Semenyo MID | Manchester City | £8.3 | 11.6% | 2 | 0.3 | +1.7 | 2.0 |
| Henderson MID | Chelsea | £4.9 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 10.5 |
| Elanga MID | Newcastle | £6.0 | 2.5% | 2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 0.0 |
Buy the Dip
Goals trail xG by 1.0 or more — chances are there, finishing is due to convert.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago FWD | Brentford | £7.8 | 8.8% | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | 4.0 |
| Gonzalo FWD | Fulham | £6.1 | 6.8% | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 2.0 |
| Wissa FWD | Newcastle | £6.1 | 13.8% | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 1.5 |
| Barry FWD | Everton | £5.7 | 8.3% | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 4.0 |
| Rayan MID | Bournemouth | £6.3 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 2.5 |
| Ndiaye MID | Manchester City | £5.8 | 5.4% | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | 3.0 |
| McBurnie FWD | Hull City | £5.5 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 1.5 |
| Delap FWD | Nottingham Forest | £5.5 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 2.0 |
| Mateta FWD | Crystal Palace | £6.3 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 0.5 |
| Wirtz MID | Liverpool | £7.2 | 5.1% | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 3.5 |
| E.Le Fée MID | Sunderland | £5.7 | 2.9% | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | 3.0 |
All Teams — Most-Owned Attackers
Nottingham Forest's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Fulham's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Bournemouth's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Sunderland's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Manchester United's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Crystal Palace's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Newcastle has scored 5 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Aston Villa's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Brentford has scored 5 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Everton's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Leeds has scored 5 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Hull City has scored 5 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Liverpool's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Chelsea has scored 9 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Arsenal's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Brighton has scored 15 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Manchester City has scored 10 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Source: official FPL API (fantasy.premierleague.com) for prices and ownership. xG aggregated from FPL's underlying provider. Verdicts derived from finishing delta (goals − xG). Not betting or fantasy advice — review your own team context before transferring.