Who to Sell. Who to Buy.
Every Premier League team's 5 most-owned attackers, tagged by whether their goals are above or below xG. Above = unsustainable, sell candidate. Below = underperforming, buy the dip. Built on the same finishing variance that drives the CURSD Luck Score.
Sell Candidates
Goals exceed xG by 1.5 or more — finishing has been hot, returns likely to dry up.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semenyo MID | Manchester City | £8.0 | 46.2% | 17 | 11.1 | +5.9 | 4.8 |
| Kroupi.Jr FWD | Bournemouth | £4.7 | 7.6% | 13 | 8.3 | +4.7 | 4.0 |
| Gibbs-White MID | Nottingham Forest | £7.6 | 9.2% | 15 | 10.8 | +4.2 | 5.3 |
| Wilson MID | Fulham | £5.8 | 17.4% | 10 | 5.9 | +4.1 | 2.3 |
| Dewsbury-Hall MID | Everton | £5.3 | 7.9% | 8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 3.0 |
| Casemiro MID | Manchester United | £5.8 | 3.8% | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 | 0.3 |
| Bruno G. MID | Newcastle | £6.9 | 6.5% | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 | 3.7 |
| Rogers MID | Aston Villa | £7.3 | 20.2% | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 4.7 |
| Cunha MID | Manchester United | £8.1 | 8.7% | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | 3.7 |
| Flemming FWD | Burnley | £5.3 | 0.8% | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 | 5.0 |
| Anthony MID | Burnley | £5.0 | 2.4% | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | 3.7 |
| Okafor MID | Leeds | £5.5 | 0.9% | 8 | 5.3 | +2.8 | 0.0 |
| Osula FWD | Newcastle | £5.5 | 2.1% | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | 5.7 |
| Rayan MID | Bournemouth | £5.4 | 2.3% | 5 | 2.7 | +2.3 | 4.7 |
| Zubimendi MID | Arsenal | £4.9 | 2.7% | 5 | 2.8 | +2.2 | 1.3 |
| Stach MID | Leeds | £4.8 | 1.7% | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | 1.7 |
| Iwobi MID | Fulham | £6.1 | 1.1% | 4 | 1.9 | +2.1 | 1.7 |
| McGinn MID | Aston Villa | £5.3 | 0.7% | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | 4.0 |
| Eze MID | Arsenal | £7.3 | 8.7% | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 2.3 |
| Šeško FWD | Manchester United | £7.2 | 4.6% | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 | 0.0 |
| Bowen FWD | West Ham | £7.8 | 17.5% | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | 5.3 |
| Gyökeres FWD | Arsenal | £9.1 | 16.4% | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 | 1.3 |
| Caicedo MID | Chelsea | £5.7 | 7.1% | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 | 1.7 |
| Haaland FWD | Manchester City | £14.7 | 62.5% | 27 | 25.5 | +1.5 | 5.0 |
Buy the Dip
Goals trail xG by 1.0 or more — chances are there, finishing is due to convert.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson FWD | Bournemouth | £6.6 | 2.4% | 6 | 10.6 | -4.6 | 1.7 |
| Schade MID | Brentford | £6.8 | 1.3% | 8 | 12.1 | -4.1 | 3.3 |
| Gordon MID | Newcastle | £7.2 | 3.1% | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 0.0 |
| Raúl FWD | Fulham | £5.9 | 1.8% | 9 | 11.6 | -2.6 | 0.7 |
| Mateta FWD | Crystal Palace | £7.6 | 8.1% | 12 | 14.4 | -2.4 | 3.2 |
| Muniz FWD | Fulham | £5.3 | 0.7% | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 1.7 |
| Tavernier MID | Bournemouth | £5.3 | 4.2% | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | 4.7 |
| Sarr MID | Crystal Palace | £6.4 | 5.6% | 9 | 10.9 | -1.9 | 4.0 |
| Wirtz MID | Liverpool | £8.3 | 8.5% | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 0.7 |
| B.Fernandes MID | Manchester United | £10.4 | 48.0% | 9 | 10.8 | -1.8 | 8.7 |
| Elanga MID | Newcastle | £6.5 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 0.7 |
| Calvert-Lewin FWD | Leeds | £5.8 | 13.7% | 14 | 15.6 | -1.6 | 5.3 |
| Marc Guiu FWD | Chelsea | £4.0 | 5.2% | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 0.0 |
| Ampadu MID | Leeds | £4.9 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 5.3 |
| King MID | Fulham | £4.4 | 1.6% | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 0.7 |
| Devenny MID | Crystal Palace | £4.3 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 0.5 |
| Gakpo MID | Liverpool | £7.3 | 5.6% | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | 2.0 |
| Strand Larsen FWD | Crystal Palace | £5.8 | 1.4% | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 1.8 |
| Wood FWD | Nottingham Forest | £7.1 | 4.7% | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 1.7 |
| Enzo MID | Chelsea | £6.5 | 12.3% | 10 | 11.3 | -1.3 | 7.3 |
| M.Salah MID | Liverpool | £14.0 | 15.2% | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 2.3 |
| Tielemans MID | Aston Villa | £5.9 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 2.3 |
| Mitoma MID | Brighton | £6.1 | 1.9% | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 |
All Teams — Most-Owned Attackers
Wolves has scored 9 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Crystal Palace has scored 17 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Chelsea has scored 8 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Leeds has scored 5 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Newcastle has scored 4 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Burnley has scored 5 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
West Ham's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Brighton has scored 5 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Nottingham Forest's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Brentford has scored 5 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Liverpool's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Bournemouth has scored 4 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
Everton's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Fulham's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Manchester City has scored 6 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Arsenal has scored 6 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Manchester United has scored 4 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Sunderland's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
Aston Villa has scored 8 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
Source: official FPL API (fantasy.premierleague.com) for prices and ownership. xG aggregated from FPL's underlying provider. Verdicts derived from finishing delta (goals − xG). Not betting or fantasy advice — review your own team context before transferring.