October 21, 2026
La Liga's Defensive Luck Rankings: Who's Cursed, Who's Blessed
Osasuna are conceding 5.1 goals more than expected. Real Betis are stopping 4.0 fewer than they should be. The numbers will come for both.
September 29, 2026
La Liga Regression Watch: Valencia's Luck Index Hits -28 While Barcelona Ride a Golden Cloud
The expected-points model sees a very different table than the one La Liga is showing you.
September 26, 2026
Valencia Are La Liga's Most Cursed Team. The Math Confirms What the Table Already Screams.
A -2.7 xPoints deficit makes Los Che statistically the unluckiest side in Spain's top flight.
September 16, 2026
La Liga's Walking Wounded: Ranking Every Club by Injury Burden
Valencia have lost 55 player-games to injury already this season. Villarreal have lost seven.
May 20, 2026
La Liga's Walking Wounded: Ranking Every Club by Injury Burden
Girona have lost 251 player-games to injury this season. Espanyol have lost 66. The gap between those two numbers is enormous.
May 19, 2026
La Liga's Luck Ledger: Barcelona's 23-Point Mirage and Athletic Club's Missing Rewards
The xPoints model sees a very different table than the one La Liga is showing you.
May 16, 2026
Athletic Club Are La Liga's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A 10-point gap between expected and actual points tells the story of San Mamés's cruelest season.
April 29, 2026
La Liga's Defensive Luck Rankings: Who's Leaking Goals They Shouldn't Be?
Athletic Club have conceded 10.3 more goals than expected. Barcelona have conceded 10.6 fewer. The gap between them tells a story.
April 28, 2026
La Liga Regression Watch: The Table Is Lying to You by Nearly 10 Points
Valencia are almost 10 xPoints below where they should be. Barcelona are nearly 20 above.
April 18, 2026
Athletic Club Are La Liga's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A Luck Index of -69 and a 10-point gap between expected and actual points tell the story of San Mamés this season.
April 16, 2026
Athletic Club Are La Liga's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A side generating 48 expected points sitting on 38 actual ones. The math is furious.
January 18, 2026
Barcelona Generate 3.7 xG, Lose at Real Sociedad
25 shots, two VAR interventions, and a 70th-minute equalizer undone within 60 seconds. The Reale Arena had other plans.