Season2025-26
Bayern München

Bayern München CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+63
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Bayern München have been living on borrowed time. 89 points from 71.99 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+22.6 CLS impact). 17 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

89
Points
Expected: 71.99
122
Goals Scored
xG: 100.79
36
Goals Conceded
xGA: 42.01
17
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 14 · 2025-12-14 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · at home
2-2
Drew at home against FSV Mainz 05

A draw that felt like a loss. Bayern München created 4.5 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 5 goals on an average day. They scored 2. FSV Mainz 05 generated just 0.6 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Bayern München. They got 1. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
29'L. Karl scores for Bayern München (assist: S. Gnabry)
45'K. Potulski scores for FSV Mainz 05 (assist: W. Boving)
67'Lee Jae-Sung scores for FSV Mainz 05 (assist: S. Bell)
87'H. Kane scores for Bayern München
4.5
xG Created
0.6
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-12-14 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Home-1.6 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 4.5 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 4.5-0.6
MW19 · 2026-01-24 · vs FC Augsburg · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.48-1.17
MW10 · 2025-11-08 · vs Union Berlin · Away-0.8 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.4-0.8.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.41-0.8

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-05-09 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.85-3.04
MW31 · 2026-04-25 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away+1.9 pts
Won 4-3 away from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 2.21-2.69
MW23 · 2026-02-21 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Home+1.4 pts
Won 3-2 home from 2.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.79-2.35

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
17 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+22.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 21 more goals than their 100.8 xG - clinical finishing
+21.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+10.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 42.0 xGA opponents generated
+7.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (169 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.2
Total CLS+63

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +63, Bayern München are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available