Season

Bayern München CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

CLS Score

5th luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Bayern München are getting roughly what they deserve. 10 points vs 10.35 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 10.35

Goals Scored

xG: 12.54

Goals Conceded

xGA: 2.28

0.3

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 2 · 2026-09-05 · vs FC Schalke 04 · away

0-0

Drew away against FC Schalke 04

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Bayern München generated 1.94 xG, comfortably more than the 0.21 their opponent managed. FC Schalke 04 generated just 0.21 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Bayern München. They got 1. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

1.94

xG Created

0.21

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs FC Schalke 04 · Away-1.6 pts

Drew 0-0 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.94-0.21

MW4 · 2026-09-18 · vs Union Berlin · Home+0.2 pts

Won 7-0 home. xG: 3.7-0.3.

Score: 7-0 | xG: 3.71-0.34

MW1 · 2026-08-28 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home+0.4 pts

Won 5-1 home. xG: 4.1-0.8.

Score: 5-1 | xG: 4.06-0.79

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-13 · vs SV Elversberg · Away+0.6 pts

Won 2-1 away. xG: 2.8-0.9.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.83-0.94

MW1 · 2026-08-28 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home+0.4 pts

Won 5-1 home. xG: 4.1-0.8.

Score: 5-1 | xG: 4.06-0.79

MW4 · 2026-09-18 · vs Union Berlin · Home+0.2 pts

Won 7-0 home. xG: 3.7-0.3.

Score: 7-0 | xG: 3.71-0.34

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (9 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+3.2

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+2.7

Finishing Luck

Scored 1 more goals than their 12.5 xG - clinical finishing

+1.6

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+1.2

xPTS Gap

Almost exactly on expected points (0.3 xPTS gap)

-0.8

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+0.6

Defensive Luck

Conceding almost exactly at the 2.3 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way

+0.5

Total CLS+9

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Bayern München are right where they belong. Their CLS of +9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 5th in the league - a tough run.

Next Matches

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