Bayern München

Bayern München CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 1 match played · View Bundesliga standings →

+5
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Bayern München are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 2.62 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

3
Points
Expected: 2.62
5
Goals Scored
xG: 4.06
1
Goals Conceded
xGA: 0.79
0.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-28 · vs VfB Stuttgart · at home
5-1
Won at home against VfB Stuttgart

One of those games where nothing went right. Bayern München created 4.06 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 5. VfB Stuttgart generated just 0.79 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Bayern München. They got 3. That's 0.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
21'D. Upamecano scores for Bayern München (assist: J. Kimmich)
52'J. Vagnoman scores for VfB Stuttgart
55'M. Olise scores for Bayern München (assist: J. Kimmich)
57'J. Vagnoman scores for Bayern München
82'A. Pavlovic scores for Bayern München (assist: I. Saibari)
90'L. Diaz scores for Bayern München (assist: I. Saibari)
4.06
xG Created
0.79
Opp. xG
0.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-28 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-1 home. xG: 4.1-0.8.
Score: 5-1 | xG: 4.06-0.79

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-28 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-1 home. xG: 4.1-0.8.
Score: 5-1 | xG: 4.06-0.79

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 0.9 more goals than their 4.1 xG - clinical finishing
+1.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (12 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.2
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.4 xPTS gap)
+1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.5
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 0.8 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-0.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
0
Total CLS+5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|37 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bayern München are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 7th).

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