Bayern München

Bayern München CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 6 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+8
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Bayern München are getting roughly what they deserve. 14 points vs 14.97 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

14
Points
Expected: 14.97
22
Goals Scored
xG: 20.9
5
Goals Conceded
xGA: 5.49
1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-09-05 · vs FC Schalke 04 · away
0-0
Drew away against FC Schalke 04

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Bayern München generated 1.94 xG, comfortably more than the 0.21 their opponent managed. FC Schalke 04 generated just 0.21 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Bayern München. They got 1. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

1.94
xG Created
0.21
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs FC Schalke 04 · Away-1.6 pts
Drew 0-0 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.94-0.21
MW5 · 2026-10-10 · vs FC Augsburg · Away-1.1 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 5.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 4.96-2.37
MW4 · 2026-09-18 · vs Union Berlin · Home+0.2 pts
Won 7-0 home. xG: 3.7-0.3.
Score: 7-0 | xG: 3.71-0.34

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-13 · vs SV Elversberg · Away+0.6 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 2.8-0.9.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.83-0.94
MW6 · 2026-10-17 · vs RB Leipzig · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-1 home. xG: 3.4-0.8.
Score: 6-1 | xG: 3.4-0.84
MW1 · 2026-08-28 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-1 home. xG: 4.1-0.8.
Score: 5-1 | xG: 4.06-0.79

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (17 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.5
xPTS Gap
1.0 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 20.9 xG - clinical finishing
+1.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.8
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 5.5 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+0.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.6
Total CLS+8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bayern München are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 6th).

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