Manchester City CURSD Luck Score
2026-27 season · 8 matches played · View Premier League standings →
Manchester City have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+12.9 CLS impact). 7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
A defeat that defied the run of play. Manchester City generated 1.81 xG, comfortably more than the 0.64 their opponent managed. Aston Villa generated just 0.64 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Manchester City. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsManchester City are riding their luck at +29. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.
Projected Finish
Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 30 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.
Fantasy Outlook
Most-Owned Attackers
| Player | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland FWD | £15.7 | 77.9% | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 | Overperforming xG — sell candidate |
| Cherki MID | £8.0 | 38.9% | 4 | 1.7 | +2.3 | Overperforming xG — sell candidate |
| Semenyo MID | £8.2 | 8.0% | 2 | 0.3 | +1.7 | Overperforming xG — sell candidate |
| Ndiaye MID | £5.8 | 5.5% | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | Underperforming xG — buy the dip |
| Enzo MID | £6.9 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | Finishing in line with xG |
Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).