Montréal Canadiens CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · 3 games played · View NHL standings →
+2
CLS Score
12th luckiest of 32 in the NHL
Canadiens are getting roughly what their play deserves. 3 points vs 2.8 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
3
Points
Expected: 2.8
12
Goals For
14
Goals Against
0.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 3 · 2026-10-06 · vs Hurricanes · at home
6-4
Lost at home against Hurricanes
Lost to Carolina Hurricanes 4-6.
4
Goals
6
Opp. Goals
-0.8
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm3 · 2026-10-06 · vs Hurricanes · Home-0.8 pts
Lost to Carolina Hurricanes 4-6.
Score: 4-6
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm1 · 2026-09-29 · vs Maple Leafs · Away+0.8 pts
Edged Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 3-2
Gm2 · 2026-10-03 · vs Penguins · Away+0.1 pts
Lost 5-6 in OT/SO against Pittsburgh Penguins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 5-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
OT Loss Rate
1 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
+1.7
Pythagorean Delta
0 more points than their goal differential predicts
+1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.7
Close Games
1-1 in one-goal games (50% win rate vs expected 50%)
0
Shootout Record
0-0 in shootouts (net 0)
0
Total CLS+2
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|79 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Canadiens are right where they belong. Their CLS of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 21th in the league - a favorable stretch.