Season2025-26
Montréal Canadiens

Montréal Canadiens CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

+41
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 32 in the NHL

Canadiens have been living on borrowed time. 106 points from 101.6 expected — shootout wins and narrow escapes padding the record. The data says the wheels are overdue to wobble. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+23.0 CLS impact). 4 more points than their goal differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

106
Points
Expected: 101.6
283
Goals For
256
Goals Against
4.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 6 · 2025-10-18 · vs Rangers · at home
4-3
Lost at home against Rangers

Lost 3-4 against New York Rangers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm6 · 2025-10-18 · vs Rangers · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against New York Rangers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm9 · 2025-10-23 · vs Oilers · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 5-6 against Edmonton Oilers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 5-6
Gm28 · 2025-12-07 · vs Blues · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against St. Louis Blues. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm78 · 2026-04-07 · vs Panthers · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Florida Panthers 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm76 · 2026-04-04 · vs Devils · Away+0.9 pts
Edged New Jersey Devils 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm62 · 2026-03-07 · vs Kings · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Los Angeles Kings 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 more points than their goal differential predicts
+23
Close Games
23-16 in one-goal games (59% win rate vs expected 50%)
+11.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+5.1
OT Loss Rate
10 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+4.2
Shootout Record
4-5 in shootouts (net -1)
-2.9
Total CLS+41

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +41, Canadiens are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available