The Washington Wizards finished 6.10 expected points below where their underlying numbers said they should have been. That is the single largest negative gap across both the NBA and NHL this season. And yet it is not even the unluckiest story the data wants to tell.
Due a Correction
The Brooklyn Nets posted the most extreme Luck Index of any team in either league at -65, paired with an xPoints gap of -5.80. Their shot quality, opponent shooting variance, and clutch-time margins all pointed to a team that should have landed roughly six points higher in the standings. Whether that translates into anything actionable in the postseason depends on matchup, but the market has been pricing Brooklyn as if their record is their talent. Historically, teams carrying a gap that wide see a measurable shift in win rate over their next 10-to-15 games.
Washington's Wizards were not far behind at -56 with that league-worst xPoints gap of -6.10. Close-game variance destroyed them. Their point differential in games decided by five or fewer points was dramatically worse than their overall efficiency metrics would predict. The Wizards are a team whose record lied about them all year. Lines built on that record may be slow to adjust.
The Memphis Grizzlies round out the trio at a Luck Index of -53 and an xPoints gap of -5.30. Memphis generated quality looks and defended at a level that supported a meaningfully better finish. Injuries shaped the narrative, but the gap between process and outcome was wider than injury context alone can explain. Variance like this typically regresses, and a playoff setting - where possessions tighten and sample sizes per game shrink - can accelerate the correction in either direction.
Living on Borrowed Luck
The Buffalo Sabres finished with a Luck Index of 70, the highest overperformance figure across both leagues, despite an xPoints gap of just 0.40. That near-zero gap means Buffalo's points total was roughly appropriate for their expected-goals profile, yet their Luck Index flags unsustainable shooting and save percentages embedded within those results. Bookmakers tend to anchor to final standings, which means the Sabres may be carrying phantom credibility into the postseason.
Right behind them, the Montréal Canadiens registered a Luck Index of 67 with a far more telling xPoints gap of 4.40. That is four and a half points of standings real estate that the underlying possession and expected-goals data never supported. Montréal rode hot goaltending and power-play conversion rates that sat well above career norms for their key personnel. Regression in those categories tends to be sharp rather than gradual.
Six points is a lot of phantom wins.
The Oklahoma City Thunder close the overperformance list at a Luck Index of 59 and an xPoints gap of 5.90. OKC's record was the most flattering in the NBA relative to their underlying metrics. Their clutch shooting, free-throw variance, and opponent three-point percentage all broke favorably at rates that deviate significantly from full-season norms. The Thunder are talented enough that their floor remains high, but the gap between record and process is the kind that playoff opponents, and playoff pricing, can exploit.
The Regression Window
In the NBA playoffs, regression does not need 20 games. A seven-game series offers enough possessions for shooting variance and turnover luck to normalize substantially by Game 4 or 5. Teams whose regular-season records outran their metrics often see the correction arrive in a single bad shooting night. In the NHL, the dynamic is even more compressed. Save percentage regresses violently in small samples, and a team riding a goaltender's heater can see that edge vanish between periods, let alone between games.
None of this is prophecy. It is base rates.
The numbers do not know who wins next. They know who was lucky last, and how often that luck holds. For anyone watching the lines move over the next few weeks, the gaps above are the ones worth understanding.