Blog/⚽ Premier League

The xG Told a Different Story: Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal

xG: Liverpool 1.1 - 1.0 Arsenal. Liverpool on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-1.

0 - 1
xG: 1.1 - 1.0
LiverpoolxG 1.12 β†’ 0 goals
1.12 xG left on the table
ArsenalxG 1.02 β†’ 1 goal
CURSD Verdict
Liverpool
-34
Robbery 😀
Arsenal
+34
Heist πŸ€
November 1, 2026

CURSD Match Report: Liverpool 😀 Robbery (-34) | Arsenal πŸ€ Heist (+34)

Liverpool created 1.12 xG. Arsenal created 1.02 xG. The scoreboard read 0-1. The data says Liverpool deserved more from this match.

The Data

StatLiverpoolArsenal
xG1.121.02
Goals01
Shots (on target)17 (0)10 (3)
Shots inside box146
Possession56%44%
Corners74
GK saves20
Fouls1810
Cards (Y/R)4/04/0

Key Events

16' Goal - Kai Havertz (assist: Declan Rice) (Arsenal)

Verdict

- Liverpool created 1.12 xG, scored 0 - Liverpool: 14 shots inside box, 0 goals - Liverpool: 0 shots on target

CURSD Match Score: Liverpool -34 (Robbery) | Arsenal +34 (Heist)

The xG share gap between process and outcome defines this match's luck signature. Liverpool had a strong case for more.

Match Stats

LiverpoolArsenal
0Goals1
1.1xG1.0
17Shots10
56%Possession44%
Free

Liked this? Get more.

Weekly analysis like this one, in your inbox every Monday. 5 picks the CURSD way: cursed teams ripe for regression, blessed teams due to cool off.

No spam. One email per week. Unsubscribe anytime.

Share

Common Questions

The xG Told a Different Story: Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal?

xG: Liverpool 1.1 - 1.0 Arsenal. Liverpool on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-1.

Which team is the most cursed in Premier League?

Liverpool currently has the lowest CURSD Luck Score in Premier League: xG: Liverpool 1.1 - 1.0 Arsenal. Liverpool on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-1.

Which team is the most blessed in Premier League?

Arsenal currently has the highest CURSD Luck Score in Premier League.

Read next