Blog/ Premier League

0.1 xG Gap, Zero Points: Chelsea's Night in Numbers

xG: Chelsea 1.9 - 2.1 Nottingham Forest. Chelsea on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 1-3.

1 - 3
xG: 1.9 - 2.1
ChelseaxG 1.931 goal
0.93 xG left on the table
Nottingham ForestxG 2.073 goals
CURSD Verdict
Chelsea
-56
Cursed 💀
Nottingham Forest
+56
Blessed 🎰
May 4, 2026

CURSD Match Report: Chelsea 💀 Cursed (-56) | Nottingham Forest 🎰 Blessed (+56)

Chelsea created 1.93 xG. Nottingham Forest created 2.07 xG. The scoreboard read 1-3. The data says Chelsea deserved more from this match.

The Data

StatChelseaNottingham Forest
xG1.932.07
Goals13
Shots (on target)21 (5)6 (4)
Shots inside box126
Possession68%32%
Corners101
GK saves14
Fouls1210
Cards (Y/R)3/01/0

Key Events

2' Goal - T. Awoniyi (assist: D. Bakwa) (Nottingham Forest)

15' Goal - Igor Jesus (pen) (Nottingham Forest)

52' Goal - T. Awoniyi (assist: M. Gibbs-White) (Nottingham Forest)

90' Goal - Joao Pedro (assist: M. Cucurella) (Chelsea)

Verdict

- Chelsea created 1.93 xG, scored 1 - Nottingham Forest created 2.07 xG, scored 3 - Nottingham Forest GK made 4 saves

CURSD Match Score: Chelsea -56 (Cursed) | Nottingham Forest +56 (Blessed)

The xG share gap between process and outcome defines this match's luck signature. Chelsea were robbed by the data's standards.

Match Stats

ChelseaNottingham Forest
1Goals3
1.9xG2.1
21Shots6
68%Possession32%
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