The Washington Wizards finished 6.10 expected points below where the underlying numbers said they should have been. The Buffalo Sabres finished above theirs. One of those teams had a miserable season. The other one also had a miserable season, just a slightly shinier one.
The standings tell you who won. The expected points models tell you who deserved to. The gap between those two numbers is where luck lives, and as the NBA and NHL shift into playoff mode and MLB grinds through its long middle act, the expected goals luck data from the regular season is worth one final look.
Due a Correction
Brooklyn Nets (NBA) posted a Luck Index of -58, meaning the gap between their actual results and what the underlying performance metrics projected was among the widest in the league. Their xPoints gap of -5.80 suggests a team that played better than its record indicated across a full 82 games. Now, the Nets' season is over, so the correction won't come for them in these playoffs. But for anyone tracking franchise trajectories, the signal matters. Teams that run this cold relative to their inputs tend to look meaningfully different the following October. The market has priced the Nets as a rebuilding project. The data is less certain.
Washington Wizards (NBA) were even unluckier by the numbers, carrying the largest xPoints gap in this group at -6.10 and a Luck Index of -56. Variance like this typically regresses, though in Washington's case it surfaces more as a futures consideration than anything actionable right now. The Wizards were bad. The Wizards were also not as bad as 82 games made them look.
Vancouver Canucks (NHL) round out the underperformers with a Luck Index of -52. Their xPoints gap was a modest -0.80, which might look negligible until you consider how tight NHL standings are. A single point in the wrong direction across a season can be the difference between home ice and a wild card road trip. Vancouver's underlying play suggested they left something on the table. With the playoffs now underway, a team that was squeezed by variance all year could find that the math finally tilts back in their favor when every shift counts.
Living on Borrowed Luck
Buffalo Sabres (NHL) carry a Luck Index of 68, the highest overperformance flag in this cycle, despite an xPoints gap of just 0.40. The index captures more than the points gap alone. It folds in shooting percentage deviations, save percentage runs, and other inputs that tend to normalize. Buffalo's season-long performance sat right at the edge of what the data considers sustainable. Bookmakers tend to be slow in adjusting for this kind of quiet overperformance.
Montréal Canadiens (NHL) hit a Luck Index of 66 with an xPoints gap of 4.40, meaning the standings were roughly four and a half points kinder than the Canadiens' play deserved. That is a significant cushion built on variance. For a team that squeezed into the playoff picture, it is worth asking how much of the foundation was concrete and how much was foam.
Nice foam, though.
Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) are the live wire here. Unlike the NBA and NHL entries, the Rays are mid-season, which makes their Luck Index of 60 and xPoints gap of 5.90 immediately relevant. Nearly six wins above expectation through the first two months is the kind of number that does not survive a full 162-game schedule. Lines imply the Rays are a certain caliber of team. The CURSD model suggests the caliber might be inflated.
The Regression Window
In the NBA and NHL playoffs, regression does not politely spread itself over 20 games. It arrives in a single quarter, a single period, a single power play. Series are short. A team that overperformed across 82 games can see the bill come due in Game 3 of a seven-game set. In MLB, the window is wider but more reliable. Teams sitting five-plus wins above their expected mark in late May tend to see the gap close over the next 30 to 40 games as sequencing luck and bullpen variance normalize.
The data does not predict the future. It just remembers the past more honestly than the standings do.