The Brooklyn Nets finished the regular season 5.80 points per game worse than their underlying numbers said they should have been. That is not a rounding error. That is an entire tier of the standings, swallowed by variance.
With the NBA playoffs now underway and MLB approaching its summer inflection point, the full-season luck ledger is worth reviewing. Not because the regular season can be replayed, but because the patterns underneath tend to follow teams forward. Six clubs across two leagues posted Luck Index scores beyond plus-or-minus 50, the threshold where the CURSD luck score model starts flashing.
Due a Correction
Brooklyn Nets (NBA) - Luck Index: -60, xPoints gap: -5.80
The Nets posted the most extreme negative cursed luck score in US professional sports this season. A gap of nearly six points between expected and actual performance per game, sustained across a full 82-game schedule, is historically rare. Brooklyn lost 14 games decided by three points or fewer, converting close-game opportunities at a rate well below league average. The talent evaluation question is fair. The variance question is louder. Teams sitting this far under their expected output in one season tend to see significant correction the following year, which is something the futures market may not yet fully reflect.
Sacramento Kings (NBA) - Luck Index: -56, xPoints gap: -4.30
Sacramento's season felt worse than it was, and the data agrees with the feeling while disagreeing with the record. A -4.30 xPoints gap placed them second in the league for underperformance relative to process. Their shot quality, opponent shooting variance, and free throw luck all tilted negative in ways that rarely persist. Bookmakers tend to anchor next season's projections to final records. The underlying numbers tell a different story.
New York Mets (MLB) - Luck Index: -53, xPoints gap: -1.10
The Mets' gap is smaller in raw terms, but context matters. In baseball, where a single run separates most outcomes, 1.10 expected points of underperformance is meaningful over 162 games. Their run differential has been notably kinder than their record, and their Pythagorean expectation suggests a club that should be hovering closer to .500. With 100 games still to play, there is runway for this one to correct in real time.
Living on Borrowed Luck
Denver Nuggets (NBA) - Luck Index: 52, xPoints gap: +4.00
Denver's regular-season record outpaced their underlying metrics by four points per game. They went 19-7 in games decided by five points or fewer. That clutch conversion rate is elite, and it is also the kind of number that collapses in the playoffs, where possessions tighten and opponents scheme specifically for late-game situations. The market priced Denver as a contender. The expected points data sees a good team, not a great one.
Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA) - Luck Index: 52, xPoints gap: +5.90
The Thunder posted the largest positive xPoints gap in the league at 5.90. That is a staggering overperformance. OKC's young roster is legitimately talented, which makes it tempting to dismiss the variance flag. But even great teams don't sustain a gap this wide. The lines imply a deep playoff run. The luck score model implies turbulence.
Sometimes the scoreboard just lies.
Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) - Luck Index: 50, xPoints gap: +4.80
The Rays are outperforming their run environment by nearly five expected points, the largest positive gap in baseball. Their record in one-run games is unsustainable by any historical standard. Tampa Bay's front office is brilliant at extracting value, but even they cannot legislate coin flips forever.
The Regression Window
In the NBA playoffs, regression doesn't wait. A seven-game series compresses variance into a handful of possessions. Teams riding a Luck Index above 50 historically see their margins shrink by the second round. In MLB, the correction window is wider, typically eight to twelve games, but mid-season is precisely when these gaps start closing. The data doesn't tell you what to do. It tells you what's probably not real.
That part is up to you.