Bottom line: Five teams across MLB, La Liga, and Ligue 1 posted the worst luck scores in world sport, and the gap between results and underlying numbers is staggering.
As of October 26, 2026, the Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets, Valencia, and Le Havre share one common humiliation: they lost far more often than they should have. Their Luck Index scores, a composite measure that compares actual results to expected outcomes derived from run differentials, expected goals, and close-game variance, range from -34 to -58. These are not teams that played poorly in every phase. They are teams that played adequately, sometimes well, and still got punished. The mlb luck rankings alone feature three clubs whose Pythagorean projections, per Baseball Savant, diverge from their actual records by margins that border on the absurd.
1. Detroit Tigers - MLB
The Tigers finished 76-86. Their Pythagorean projection, based on runs scored and runs allowed, says they should have won roughly 89 games. That 13-win gap is the kind of number that makes an analytics department stare at the ceiling for a while.
A Luck Index of -58 is the worst in world sport this cycle. Detroit's season was defined by one-run games and late-inning collapses that turned comfortable positions into losses. The underlying run environment suggested a team that belonged in the playoff conversation. Instead they watched October from home.
Thirteen phantom wins. That is not a rounding error.
2. San Francisco Giants - MLB
San Francisco went 65-97 and earned the kind of record that invites rebuilding conversations. But the Pythagorean model, again sourced from Baseball Savant's season-end data, pegs them closer to 72 wins. Still not good. But seven wins better than reality, which is the difference between a teardown and a team with pieces worth keeping.
Their Luck Index of -53 reflects a season where the luck score ran almost uniformly negative. The Giants did not lose because they were outclassed in aggregate. They lost because close games fell the wrong way with remarkable consistency, turning a below-average team into a historically poor one.
3. New York Mets - MLB
The Mets posted a 74-88 record against a Pythagorean expectation of roughly 78 wins. A four-win gap is less dramatic than Detroit's or San Francisco's, but their Luck Index of -51 reflects deeper finishing variance across the full season, including a brutal stretch in one-run and extra-inning games.
New York's season looks like underperformance. The numbers say it was closer to misfortune.
4. Valencia - La Liga
Shifting continents and sports. Valencia sit on 6 points through 10 La Liga matches (1W-3D-6L), a start that has relegation written all over it. But according to FBref data, their expected points tally based on expected goals for and against is approximately 11.5.
| Metric | Actual | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 11.5 |
| Luck Index | -34 | - |
That 5.5-point gap means Valencia have been playing like a midtable side and getting results like a doomed one. Their expected goals luck has been atrocious, with finishing rates well below league average on both sides of the ball. The underlying chance creation suggests a team that should be scrapping for 10th, not staring at 18th.
5. Le Havre - Ligue 1
Le Havre have zero wins through eight Ligue 1 matches: 0W-2D-6L, 2 points. Their xPoints projection, per Understat, sits at 10.4. That 8.4-point gap on a per-match basis is the largest rate differential on this list.
| Metric | Actual | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 10.4 |
| Luck Index | -34 | - |
A team generating enough quality chances and defensive resistance to warrant 10 points does not usually find itself pointless. Le Havre's finishing and conversion numbers are so far below expected values that regression alone could pull them out of the bottom three, if it arrives in time.
The Common Thread
All five teams share one specific affliction: finishing variance. Detroit, San Francisco, and New York lost close games at rates their run environments could not explain. Valencia and Le Havre created and conceded chances at rates that should have produced far more points than they earned. None of these teams were great. But all of them were meaningfully better than their records suggest, and the luckscore gap between what they did and what happened to them is the widest in their respective sports right now. Whether regression arrives as correction or just consolation depends on how many games are left to play.
