In hockey, close games are the ones decided by a single goal, whether in regulation, overtime, or a shootout. Every team plays dozens of them each season, and the outcomes often hinge on a late bounce, a crossbar, a save percentage spike in the final five minutes. Over a full 82-game slate, a team's record in these coin-flip contests tells you less about its quality and more about which side of variance it landed on. Now that the regular season is in the rearview mirror and the playoffs are underway, we can look back at who got squeezed and who got carried by the thinnest margins in 2025-26.
Most Cursed by Close Games
1. New York Rangers - The Rangers posted one of the most lopsided close-game records in the league this season. When games were decided by a goal, New York found itself on the wrong end far more often than probability would suggest. For a roster with this much talent, the pattern points squarely at variance rather than some fundamental flaw in their game.
2. Utah Mammoth - In their second season in Salt Lake City, the Mammoth discovered that tight games are an unkind teacher. Their close-game record was among the worst in the Western Conference, dragging their overall point total well below what their underlying numbers deserved.
3. Tampa Bay Lightning - Tampa's window has been narrowing for a few years, but this season's close-game futility made things look worse than they probably were. The Lightning bled points in one-goal affairs at a rate that suggests significant bad luck layered on top of a transitioning roster.
4. Colorado Avalanche - Colorado had no trouble generating offense or controlling play at five-on-five. Finishing off tight games was another matter entirely. Their close-game record was a quiet anchor on a season that looked mediocre only on the surface.
5. Ottawa Senators - Ottawa's close-game struggles were the kind of thing that turns a borderline playoff team into a lottery spectator. The margins were razor thin, and the Senators found themselves on the dull side of the razor almost every time.
Most Blessed by Close Games
1. San Jose Sharks - San Jose won close games at an almost suspicious rate this season. The Sharks were not, by most analytical measures, a particularly dominant team. They were, however, remarkably good at being on the right side of a one-goal margin. That is a useful skill until it isn't.
2. Los Angeles Kings - The Kings padded their point total with a sterling record in tight contests, continuing a multi-year trend of outperforming expected standings. At some point, you have to ask whether it's coaching, goaltending, or just a very friendly coin.
3. Detroit Red Wings - Detroit's close-game record gave the franchise its rosiest season in years. The underlying metrics were fine. The clutch-game results were better than fine.
4. Anaheim Ducks - Anaheim rode a strong one-goal record to a more competitive finish than most projections anticipated. Young teams tend to be volatile in these situations, and the Ducks' volatility broke their way.
5. Montréal Canadiens - The Canadiens squeezed out wins in tight games with enough regularity to make their rebuild look ahead of schedule. Whether that pace holds is another question.
Sometimes the coin just lands heads for 82 games straight.
What This Tells Us
The gap between the most cursed and most blessed teams in close games this season was enormous, spanning what likely amounted to a 15-to-20 point swing in the standings. Historically, close-game records are among the least stable metrics in hockey from year to year. Teams that win 60 percent of their one-goal games tend to regress toward 50 percent the following season, and vice versa. The Rangers' misfortune and San Jose's good fortune are both likely to fade.
For playoff teams currently benefiting from a blessed close-game record, the postseason is a fresh sample. For those who were cursed, the offseason offers the only real consolation: the hockey gods have short memories.
