Bottom line: Five football clubs across four leagues are losing far more often than their underlying performance says they should be.
As of November 2, 2026, these five teams share one quietly humiliating distinction: the scoreboard doesn't match the spreadsheet. Le Havre, Sunderland, Valencia, Nottingham Forest, and Borussia Mönchengladbach span four countries, three languages, and a combined zero good moods, yet their underlying numbers, per FBref and Understat xG data, all point to the same conclusion. They deserve better. The table disagrees.
What follows is this week's cross-sport CURSD luck ranking, focused entirely on football clubs whose xG luck rankings have cratered into genuinely remarkable territory.
1. Le Havre - Ligue 1
Le Havre's Luck Index of -41 is not a typo. Through nine Ligue 1 matches, they have accumulated 2 points. Their expected points total, based on match-level xG, sits at 11.0. That is a 9-point gap, the kind of deficit that would flip a team from the bottom of the table to comfortable midtable anonymity.
Zero wins and seven losses suggest a squad being outclassed. The underlying shot data suggests something closer to a side that should have won two or three of those games and drawn a couple more. The difference between 2 points and 11 points is the difference between crisis and calm.
Le Havre's cursed luck score is the highest in any of Europe's top five leagues. They are converting chances at a rate well below their xG would predict, and conceding goals at a rate well above it. That combination, finishing poorly while also being punished on every defensive mistake, is the statistical signature of a team on the wrong side of variance in every phase of play.
2. Sunderland - Premier League
Sunderland sit on 5 points from 9 matches. Their expected points: 10.3. A Luck Index of -34 makes them the unluckiest team in the Premier League by a comfortable margin.
For a promoted side, the raw results look like a team out of its depth. The xG profile looks like a team that belongs. One win and six losses is relegation form. The underlying numbers describe a side that, with average finishing luck, would be sitting closer to 10 points and looking like a functional mid-table outfit.
Their close-game record is where the curse lives. Sunderland have been involved in multiple matches decided by a single goal, and they have lost nearly all of them.
3. Valencia - La Liga
Valencia's 9 points from 11 matches understate a squad generating 12.6 xPoints worth of performance. The Luck Index of -29 is steep enough to account for roughly one extra win that never arrived.
Context matters here. Valencia have not been dominant in any match. But they have been competitive in most of them, and three draws suggest a team regularly doing enough to earn something, only to walk away with less than they created.
4. Nottingham Forest - Premier League
Forest's 6 points from 9 matches look grim. Their 13.3 xPoints look like a different season entirely. A gap of more than 7 expected points is the largest raw xPoints deficit in the Premier League, even larger than Sunderland's.
A Luck Index of -27 puts them just behind Valencia, but the context is arguably worse. Forest's xG data suggests they have been generating enough quality to sit on 13 points, which would place them comfortably in the top half.
Instead, they have one win.
5. Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bundesliga
Gladbach round out the list with a Luck Index of -27 and a record of 1W 1D 6L, good for 4 points. Their xPoints: 8.5. The gap is smaller in absolute terms than the clubs above them, but the ratio is brutal. They have captured less than half the points their performances have warranted.
One win from eight matches is the kind of record that gets managers fired. The xG profile is the kind of record that makes the firing feel premature.
| Rank | Team | Pts | xPts | Luck Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Havre | 2 | 11.0 | -41 |
| 2 | Sunderland | 5 | 10.3 | -34 |
| 3 | Valencia | 9 | 12.6 | -29 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 13.3 | -27 |
| 5 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 8.5 | -27 |
The shared thread is not schedule strength or defensive fragility. It is finishing variance on both ends of the pitch. All five teams are underperforming their xG on attack and overperforming it on defense, meaning they are converting fewer chances than expected while conceding more goals than the quality of shots against them would predict. That is the double-edged sword of poor luck: it cuts going forward and coming back. Regression should, eventually, help all five. The question is whether it arrives before the table damage becomes permanent.
