Bottom line: Five football clubs across four leagues are dramatically underperforming their expected points, and Le Havre's 10-point deficit is the worst of the lot.
As of November 9, 2026, five teams across Europe's top leagues share one common humiliation: the underlying numbers say they should be better off. Le Havre, Borussia Mönchengladbach, Sunderland, Valencia, and Manchester United sit in various stages of sporting misery, but their Luck Index scores, which measure the gap between actual results and what their match-level expected metrics project, tell a story of variance run violently wrong. Per FBref data through this weekend's matches, all five clubs have actual point totals that trail their expected points by at least four, and the worst case is closer to ten.
1. Le Havre - Ligue 1
Le Havre's Luck Index of -43 is, in cold numerical terms, the worst in any major European league this season. Their record reads 0W-2D-8L. They have two points. Their expected points total sits at 12.0.
That is a 10-point gap through 10 matches. To put that in perspective, regression to the mean from this position would look like something close to a six-match unbeaten run, which is not impossible for a team whose underlying chance creation supports roughly 1.2 expected points per game. The problem, of course, is that regression does not arrive on schedule.
Le Havre are converting at a rate that bears almost no resemblance to their shot quality. They are the footballing equivalent of a coin that has landed tails eight times running. The coin is not broken. But you would forgive it for feeling cursed.
2. Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bundesliga
Gladbach's Luck Index of -37 reflects a familiar pattern: a team creating enough to be mid-table but finishing like a side headed for the second division. Their 4 points from 9 matches compare to 9.8 xPoints, a gap of 5.8.
One win, one draw, seven losses. The Bundesliga table sees a team in crisis. The expected-points table sees a team that should be sitting on roughly 10 points, comfortably clear of the relegation zone. Close-game variance has been brutal: Gladbach have lost five matches this season by a single goal.
If you are looking for a club where finishing variance alone explains the gap, this is your case study.
3. Sunderland - Premier League
Sunderland's return to the Premier League has produced 8 points from 10 matches, a record of 2W-2D-6L. Their expected points, according to Understat's model, project to 12.8.
A 4.8-point shortfall might not sound dramatic until you consider what it means in the Premier League table. That gap is the difference between the relegation zone and 14th place. Sunderland's Luck Index of -35 makes them the unluckiest team in England's top flight.
Their xG differential per 90 is roughly neutral, which in a newly promoted side is quietly impressive. The results simply have not followed.
4. Valencia - La Liga
Valencia carry a Luck Index of -33 into November, with 9 points from a possible 36 against an expected return of 12.8. Their 2W-3D-7L record is grim, but the three draws suggest a team that is at least competitive in matches it cannot find a way to win.
| Metric | Actual | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 12.8 |
| Wins | 2 | ~4 |
| Luck Index | -33 | 0 |
Valencia's defensive numbers are not good. But their attacking output, measured by non-penalty xG, is mid-table caliber. The finishing has let them down.
5. Manchester United - Premier League
United's Luck Index of -28 rounds out the list. Their 1W-5D-4L record yields 8 points against 12.0 expected. Five draws from ten matches is the signature stat here: United are not losing badly, they are simply not winning at all.
A team drawing that frequently is typically one bounce, one deflection, one marginal VAR call from a dramatically different season. United's problem is that every one of those margins has gone against them.
The thread connecting all five clubs is not defensive fragility or tactical failure. It is finishing variance, the gap between the chances they create (and concede) and what actually hits the net. In every case, the math says the results will improve. The math, regrettably, does not say when.
