⚽ Premier League Articles
Every CURSD piece on Premier League. Season retrospectives, regression watches, and signal rankings.
48 articles
May 11, 2026
Tottenham 1-1 Leeds: Deserved on Both Sides
Tottenham 1-1 Leeds (xG: 1.3-1.3). The numbers match the result.
May 10, 2026
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle (xG: 1.2-1.6). The numbers match the result.
May 10, 2026
Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton (xG: 2.7-1.4). The numbers match the result.
May 10, 2026
Burnley vs Aston Villa: A Fair Fight (2-2)
Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa (xG: 1.8-1.4). The numbers match the result.
May 9, 2026
The Data Agrees: Manchester City 3-0 Brentford Was About Right
Manchester City 3-0 Brentford (xG: 3.0-0.2). The numbers match the result.
May 9, 2026
Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United (xG: 1.3-0.6). The numbers match the result.
May 9, 2026
Brighton 3-0 Wolves: The Scoreline Lied About Wolves
xG: Brighton 1.6 - 0.5 Wolves. Wolves on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
May 9, 2026
Fulham Won the xG Battle. Lost the Match.
Fulham created 1.3 xG but lost 0-1. The xG gap of 0.5 tells a different story.
May 9, 2026
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea: Deserved on Both Sides
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea (xG: 0.6-0.5). The numbers match the result.
May 9, 2026
The Hidden Curse of the Premier League: Tottenham's Season of Painful Variance
Spurs are finishing above their xG, defending below their xGA, and still losing. The numbers are a mess.
May 4, 2026
Everton Deserved a Point. The Data Says So.
Everton 3-3 Manchester City (xG: 2.8-1.4). The numbers match the result.
May 4, 2026
0.1 xG Gap, Zero Points: Chelsea's Night in Numbers
xG: Chelsea 1.9 - 2.1 Nottingham Forest. Chelsea on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 1-3.
May 3, 2026
The Data Agrees: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham Was About Right
Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham (xG: 0.3-1.0). The numbers match the result.
May 3, 2026
The Data Agrees: Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool Was About Right
Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool (xG: 2.1-0.9). The numbers match the result.
May 3, 2026
Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace: No Complaints, According to xG
Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace (xG: 2.3-0.8). The numbers match the result.
May 2, 2026
How West Ham Got Cursed Against Brentford
xG: Brentford 2.1 - 0.7 West Ham. West Ham on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
May 2, 2026
Arsenal 3-0 Fulham: Fulham Left Wondering What Went Wrong
Arsenal 3-0 Fulham (xG: 3.0-0.4). The numbers match the result.
May 2, 2026
Wolves Deserved More. The Data Proves It. (Wolves 1-1 Sunderland)
xG: Wolves 1.8 - 0.6 Sunderland. Wolves on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 1-1.
May 2, 2026
Newcastle 3-1 Brighton: Brighton Left Wondering What Went Wrong
Newcastle 3-1 Brighton (xG: 3.3-1.6). The numbers match the result.
May 1, 2026
Leeds 3-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Fair (-11) | Leeds Fair (+11). xG: 1.65-0.53.
April 27, 2026
Manchester United 2-1 Brentford: Were Brentford Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Brentford Robbery (-45) | Manchester United Lucky (+45). xG: 1.36-1.17.
April 25, 2026
Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle: Were Newcastle Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Newcastle Cursed (-53) | Arsenal Lucky (+53). xG: 0.64-0.91.
April 25, 2026
West Ham 2-1 Everton: Were Everton Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Everton Robbery (-42) | West Ham Lucky (+42). xG: 1.17-1.35.
April 25, 2026
Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace: Were Crystal Palace Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Crystal Palace Cursed (-69) | Liverpool Lucky (+69). xG: 0.91-2.32.
April 25, 2026
Wolves 0-1 Tottenham: Were Wolves Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Wolves Robbery (-39) | Tottenham Lucky (+39). xG: 0.62-1.05.
April 25, 2026
Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa: Were Aston Villa Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Aston Villa Robbery (-37) | Fulham Lucky (+37). xG: 1.06-0.71.
April 24, 2026
Sunderland 0-5 Nottingham Forest: Were Sunderland Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Sunderland Cursed (-55) | Nottingham Forest Lucky (+55). xG: 0.70-1.10.
April 22, 2026
Burnley 0-1 Manchester City: Were Burnley Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Fair (-11) | Manchester City Fair (+11). xG: 0.63-3.36.
April 22, 2026
Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds: Were Bournemouth Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Bournemouth Unlucky (-23) | Leeds Lucky (+23). xG: 1.65-0.81.
April 22, 2026
The Finishing Gap: Premier League Teams Ranked by Shooting Luck
Crystal Palace have left 13.8 goals on the table this season. Tottenham have conjured 7.3 from thin air.
April 21, 2026
Brighton 3-0 Chelsea: Were Chelsea Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Chelsea Fair (-12) | Brighton Fair (+12). xG: 2.14-0.37.
April 21, 2026
Regression Watch: The Premier League's Luck Ledger Is Wildly Unbalanced
Wolves are sitting 15 points below their expected total. Aston Villa are nearly 16 points above theirs.
April 20, 2026
Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham: Were Crystal Palace Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Crystal Palace Fair (-6) | West Ham Fair (+6). xG: 0.73-0.61.
April 19, 2026
Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal: Were Arsenal Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Arsenal Robbery (-37) | Manchester City Lucky (+37). xG: 1.41-1.53.
April 19, 2026
Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland: Were Sunderland Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Sunderland Unlucky (-24) | Aston Villa Lucky (+24). xG: 2.67-1.76.
April 19, 2026
Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Unlucky (-19) | Nottingham Forest Lucky (+19). xG: 1.18-0.36.
April 19, 2026
Everton 1-2 Liverpool: Were Everton Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Everton Unlucky (-25) | Liverpool Lucky (+25). xG: 0.80-1.45.
April 19, 2026
Did Arsenal Deserve Better? Here Is What the Data Says.
Arsenal hit the post twice, generated more xG, and lost anyway. The margins in the title race just got thinner.
April 18, 2026
Chelsea 0-1 Manchester United: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.57-0.29. Chelsea Cursed (-78) | Manchester United Lucky (+78).
April 18, 2026
Tottenham 2-2 Brighton: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.08-0.89. Tottenham Fair (-10) | Brighton Fair (+10).
April 18, 2026
Leeds 3-0 Wolves: CURSD Match Report
xG: 2.78-0.54. Wolves Unlucky (-21) | Leeds Lucky (+21).
April 18, 2026
Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.65-3.03. Newcastle Unlucky (-26) | Bournemouth Lucky (+26).
April 18, 2026
Brentford 0-0 Fulham: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.36-0.74. Brentford Unlucky (-26) | Fulham Lucky (+26).
April 18, 2026
Brentford 0-0 Fulham: Leno, a Post, and 1.36 xG Worth of Nothing
Brentford created 1.36 xG, hit the post, and watched Leno make a 90th-minute save that goes in the vast majority of the time. Fulham had zero shots on target.
April 18, 2026
Wolves Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
Wolverhampton should have nearly double their actual points total. The math is unforgiving.
April 16, 2026
Wolves Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Aren't Even Close.
A 15-point gap between expected and actual tells a story stats rarely tell this loudly.
April 13, 2026
Wolves Are the Premier League's Unluckiest Team. That Does Not Make Them Good.
A 15-point gap between actual and expected, an 8-goal defensive variance, and a luck-adjusted rank that is still 19th.
February 1, 2026
Aston Villa Create 2.4 xG and Lose to 10-Man Brentford
27 shots, 72% possession, a numerical advantage, and a VAR-disallowed goal. Brentford needed 0.4 xG.