⚽ Premier League Articles
Every CURSD piece on Premier League. Season retrospectives, regression watches, and signal rankings.
91 articles
October 19, 2026
Tottenham 3-1 Coventry: The Margins Went Against Coventry
Tottenham 3-1 Coventry (xG: 0.9-0.8). The numbers match the result.
October 18, 2026
Arsenal Win It, but the Data Disagrees
xG: Nottingham Forest 0.9 - 1.2 Arsenal. Nottingham Forest on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-1.
October 18, 2026
Crystal Palace Deserved More. The Data Proves It.
xG: Brighton 2.0 - 0.8 Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 5-0.
October 17, 2026
The xG Told a Different Story: Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa
xG: Newcastle 1.1 - 1.6 Aston Villa. Newcastle on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-1.
October 14, 2026
The Premier League Finishing Luck Table: Who's Converting Gold and Who's Hitting the Post
Brighton are outscoring their expected goals by nearly three-to-one. Nottingham Forest can't buy one. The xG gap tells the story.
October 12, 2026
Newcastle Won the xG Battle. Lost the Match.
Newcastle created 1.9 xG but lost 4-1. The xG gap of 0.3 tells a different story.
October 11, 2026
Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City: Liverpool Robbed by the Numbers
xG: Liverpool 0.9 - 1.3 Manchester City. Liverpool on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-3.
October 11, 2026
Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest Robbed by the Numbers
xG: Crystal Palace 2.4 - 3.3 Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-1.
October 10, 2026
Manchester United Edge It 1-1, but Tottenham Have a Case
Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham (xG: 0.9-1.7). The numbers match the result.
October 10, 2026
Sunderland Did Everything Right Except Score
xG: Sunderland 0.7 - 1.1 Brighton. Sunderland on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-2.
October 10, 2026
Ipswich Win It, but the Data Disagrees
xG: Ipswich 1.2 - 1.9 Fulham. Fulham on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 2-1.
October 10, 2026
Chelsea Win It, but the Data Disagrees
Bournemouth created 1.5 xG but lost 5-1. The xG gap of 0.4 tells a different story.
September 20, 2026
Fulham 1-1 Manchester United: The Scoreline Lied About Manchester United
xG: Fulham 0.0 - 0.0 Manchester United. Manchester United on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 1-1.
September 20, 2026
0.0 xG Gap, Zero Points: Sunderland's Night in Numbers
Sunderland created 0.0 xG but lost 5-3. The xG gap of 0.0 tells a different story.
September 20, 2026
Bournemouth Lose Despite Matching Liverpool on xG
Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool (xG: 0.0-0.0). The numbers match the result.
September 19, 2026
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry: Nottingham Forest's xG Says This Should Have Been Closer
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry (xG: 0.0-0.0). The numbers match the result.
September 19, 2026
Arsenal Deserved More. The Data Proves It.
Arsenal created 0.0 xG but lost 3-0. The xG gap of 0.0 tells a different story.
September 19, 2026
How Ipswich Got Completely Cursed Against Everton
Ipswich created 0.0 xG but lost 1-0. The xG gap of 0.0 tells a different story.
September 19, 2026
Newcastle 2-1 Hull City: The Scoreline Lied About Hull City
Hull City created 0.0 xG but lost 2-1. The xG gap of 0.0 tells a different story.
September 19, 2026
Coventry City Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Confirm It.
Four matches, zero points, zero goals, and a 4.09 xPoints gap that tells a complicated story.
September 18, 2026
Chelsea Won the xG Battle. Lost the Match.
Chelsea created 0.0 xG but lost 3-0. The xG gap of 0.0 tells a different story.
September 14, 2026
How Newcastle Got Completely Cursed Against Leeds
Newcastle created 0.0 xG but lost 4-1. The xG gap of 0.0 tells a different story.
September 13, 2026
Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City: Manchester United's xG Says This Should Have Been Closer
Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City (xG: 0.0-0.0). The numbers match the result.
September 13, 2026
Coventry Lose Despite Matching Brighton on xG
Coventry 0-5 Brighton (xG: 0.0-0.0). The numbers match the result.
September 12, 2026
Hull City Draw Despite Matching Chelsea on xG
Chelsea 2-2 Hull City (xG: 0.0-0.0). The numbers match the result.
September 12, 2026
Close but Cursed: Brentford Fall Short Against Bournemouth
Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford (xG: 0.0-0.0). The numbers match the result.
September 9, 2026
Crystal Palace Are Conceding Goals That Shouldn't Exist
Ranking every Premier League team by the gap between goals conceded and expected goals against, three weeks into the season.
September 5, 2026
Brentford 1-1 Sunderland: Fair Split or Someone Got Cheated?
Brentford 1-1 Sunderland (xG: 0.0-0.0). The numbers match the result.
September 5, 2026
Manchester City 1-0 Coventry: The Scoreline Lied About Coventry
Coventry created 0.0 xG but lost 1-0. The xG gap of 0.0 tells a different story.
September 5, 2026
The xG Told a Different Story: Bournemouth 2-2 Newcastle
xG: Newcastle 0.0 - 0.0 Bournemouth. Bournemouth on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 2-2.
May 24, 2026
Manchester United Win It, but the Data Disagrees
xG: Brighton 0.8 - 1.8 Manchester United. Brighton on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 0-3.
May 24, 2026
The xG Told a Different Story: Leeds 3-0 West Ham
xG: West Ham 2.6 - 1.6 Leeds. Leeds on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
May 24, 2026
Liverpool Deserved a Point. The Data Says So.
Liverpool 1-1 Brentford (xG: 2.9-1.2). The numbers match the result.
May 19, 2026
Tottenham Deserved More. The Data Proves It.
Tottenham created 1.7 xG but lost 2-1. The xG gap of 1.1 tells a different story.
May 19, 2026
The Data Agrees: Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City Was About Right
Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City (xG: 2.0-1.7). The numbers match the result.
May 18, 2026
Arsenal 1-0 Burnley: Deserved on Both Sides
Arsenal 1-0 Burnley (xG: 1.0-0.2). The numbers match the result.
May 17, 2026
West Ham Lose Despite Matching Newcastle on xG
Newcastle 3-1 West Ham (xG: 1.7-0.9). The numbers match the result.
May 17, 2026
Brentford 2-2 Crystal Palace: No Complaints, According to xG
Brentford 2-2 Crystal Palace (xG: 2.0-1.7). The numbers match the result.
May 17, 2026
The xG Told a Different Story: Everton 1-3 Sunderland
Everton created 1.1 xG but lost 1-3. The xG gap of 0.3 tells a different story.
May 17, 2026
Wolves 1-1 Fulham: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Wolves 1-1 Fulham (xG: 1.4-1.5). The numbers match the result.
May 17, 2026
The Data Agrees: Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest Was About Right
Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest (xG: 4.2-1.8). The numbers match the result.
May 15, 2026
How Liverpool Got Cursed Against Aston Villa
xG: Aston Villa 1.9 - 1.5 Liverpool. Liverpool on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 4-2.
May 13, 2026
0.9 xG Gap, Zero Points: Crystal Palace's Night in Numbers
xG: Manchester City 1.6 - 0.7 Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
May 11, 2026
Tottenham 1-1 Leeds: Deserved on Both Sides
Tottenham 1-1 Leeds (xG: 1.3-1.3). The numbers match the result.
May 10, 2026
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle (xG: 1.2-1.6). The numbers match the result.
May 10, 2026
Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton (xG: 2.7-1.4). The numbers match the result.
May 10, 2026
Burnley vs Aston Villa: A Fair Fight (2-2)
Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa (xG: 1.8-1.4). The numbers match the result.
May 9, 2026
The Data Agrees: Manchester City 3-0 Brentford Was About Right
Manchester City 3-0 Brentford (xG: 3.0-0.2). The numbers match the result.
May 9, 2026
Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United (xG: 1.3-0.6). The numbers match the result.
May 9, 2026
Brighton 3-0 Wolves: The Scoreline Lied About Wolves
xG: Brighton 1.6 - 0.5 Wolves. Wolves on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
May 9, 2026
Fulham Won the xG Battle. Lost the Match.
Fulham created 1.3 xG but lost 0-1. The xG gap of 0.5 tells a different story.
May 9, 2026
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea: Deserved on Both Sides
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea (xG: 0.6-0.5). The numbers match the result.
May 9, 2026
The Hidden Curse of the Premier League: Tottenham's Season of Painful Variance
Spurs are finishing above their xG, defending below their xGA, and still losing. The numbers are a mess.
May 4, 2026
Everton Deserved a Point. The Data Says So.
Everton 3-3 Manchester City (xG: 2.8-1.4). The numbers match the result.
May 4, 2026
0.1 xG Gap, Zero Points: Chelsea's Night in Numbers
xG: Chelsea 1.9 - 2.1 Nottingham Forest. Chelsea on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 1-3.
May 3, 2026
The Data Agrees: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham Was About Right
Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham (xG: 0.3-1.0). The numbers match the result.
May 3, 2026
The Data Agrees: Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool Was About Right
Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool (xG: 2.1-0.9). The numbers match the result.
May 3, 2026
Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace: No Complaints, According to xG
Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace (xG: 2.3-0.8). The numbers match the result.
May 2, 2026
How West Ham Got Cursed Against Brentford
xG: Brentford 2.1 - 0.7 West Ham. West Ham on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
May 2, 2026
Arsenal 3-0 Fulham: Fulham Left Wondering What Went Wrong
Arsenal 3-0 Fulham (xG: 3.0-0.4). The numbers match the result.
May 2, 2026
Wolves Deserved More. The Data Proves It. (Wolves 1-1 Sunderland)
xG: Wolves 1.8 - 0.6 Sunderland. Wolves on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 1-1.
May 2, 2026
Newcastle 3-1 Brighton: Brighton Left Wondering What Went Wrong
Newcastle 3-1 Brighton (xG: 3.3-1.6). The numbers match the result.
May 1, 2026
Leeds 3-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Fair (-11) | Leeds Fair (+11). xG: 1.65-0.53.
April 27, 2026
Manchester United 2-1 Brentford: Were Brentford Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Brentford Robbery (-45) | Manchester United Lucky (+45). xG: 1.36-1.17.
April 25, 2026
Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle: Were Newcastle Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Newcastle Cursed (-53) | Arsenal Lucky (+53). xG: 0.64-0.91.
April 25, 2026
West Ham 2-1 Everton: Were Everton Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Everton Robbery (-42) | West Ham Lucky (+42). xG: 1.17-1.35.
April 25, 2026
Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace: Were Crystal Palace Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Crystal Palace Cursed (-69) | Liverpool Lucky (+69). xG: 0.91-2.32.
April 25, 2026
Wolves 0-1 Tottenham: Were Wolves Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Wolves Robbery (-39) | Tottenham Lucky (+39). xG: 0.62-1.05.
April 25, 2026
Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa: Were Aston Villa Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Aston Villa Robbery (-37) | Fulham Lucky (+37). xG: 1.06-0.71.
April 24, 2026
Sunderland 0-5 Nottingham Forest: Were Sunderland Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Sunderland Cursed (-55) | Nottingham Forest Lucky (+55). xG: 0.70-1.10.
April 22, 2026
Burnley 0-1 Manchester City: Were Burnley Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Fair (-11) | Manchester City Fair (+11). xG: 0.63-3.36.
April 22, 2026
Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds: Were Bournemouth Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Bournemouth Unlucky (-23) | Leeds Lucky (+23). xG: 1.65-0.81.
April 22, 2026
The Finishing Gap: Premier League Teams Ranked by Shooting Luck
Crystal Palace have left 13.8 goals on the table this season. Tottenham have conjured 7.3 from thin air.
April 21, 2026
Brighton 3-0 Chelsea: Were Chelsea Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Chelsea Fair (-12) | Brighton Fair (+12). xG: 2.14-0.37.
April 21, 2026
Regression Watch: The Premier League's Luck Ledger Is Wildly Unbalanced
Wolves are sitting 15 points below their expected total. Aston Villa are nearly 16 points above theirs.
April 20, 2026
Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham: Were Crystal Palace Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Crystal Palace Fair (-6) | West Ham Fair (+6). xG: 0.73-0.61.
April 19, 2026
Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal: Were Arsenal Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Arsenal Robbery (-37) | Manchester City Lucky (+37). xG: 1.41-1.53.
April 19, 2026
Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland: Were Sunderland Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Sunderland Unlucky (-24) | Aston Villa Lucky (+24). xG: 2.67-1.76.
April 19, 2026
Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Unlucky (-19) | Nottingham Forest Lucky (+19). xG: 1.18-0.36.
April 19, 2026
Everton 1-2 Liverpool: Were Everton Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Everton Unlucky (-25) | Liverpool Lucky (+25). xG: 0.80-1.45.
April 19, 2026
Did Arsenal Deserve Better? Here Is What the Data Says.
Arsenal hit the post twice, generated more xG, and lost anyway. The margins in the title race just got thinner.
April 18, 2026
Chelsea 0-1 Manchester United: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.57-0.29. Chelsea Cursed (-78) | Manchester United Lucky (+78).
April 18, 2026
Tottenham 2-2 Brighton: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.08-0.89. Tottenham Fair (-10) | Brighton Fair (+10).
April 18, 2026
Leeds 3-0 Wolves: CURSD Match Report
xG: 2.78-0.54. Wolves Unlucky (-21) | Leeds Lucky (+21).
April 18, 2026
Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.65-3.03. Newcastle Unlucky (-26) | Bournemouth Lucky (+26).
April 18, 2026
Brentford 0-0 Fulham: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.36-0.74. Brentford Unlucky (-26) | Fulham Lucky (+26).
April 18, 2026
Brentford 0-0 Fulham: Leno, a Post, and 1.36 xG Worth of Nothing
Brentford created 1.36 xG, hit the post, and watched Leno make a 90th-minute save that goes in the vast majority of the time. Fulham had zero shots on target.
April 18, 2026
Wolves Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
Wolverhampton should have nearly double their actual points total. The math is unforgiving.
April 16, 2026
Wolves Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Aren't Even Close.
A 15-point gap between expected and actual tells a story stats rarely tell this loudly.
April 13, 2026
Wolves Are the Premier League's Unluckiest Team. That Does Not Make Them Good.
A 15-point gap between actual and expected, an 8-goal defensive variance, and a luck-adjusted rank that is still 19th.
February 1, 2026
Aston Villa Create 2.4 xG and Lose to 10-Man Brentford
27 shots, 72% possession, a numerical advantage, and a VAR-disallowed goal. Brentford needed 0.4 xG.