⚽ Premier League Articles
Every CURSD piece on Premier League. Season retrospectives, regression watches, and signal rankings.
18 articles
April 21, 2026
Brighton 3-0 Chelsea: Were Chelsea Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Chelsea Fair (-12) | Brighton Fair (+12). xG: 2.14-0.37.
April 21, 2026
Regression Watch: The Premier League's Luck Ledger Is Wildly Unbalanced
Wolves are sitting 15 points below their expected total. Aston Villa are nearly 16 points above theirs.
April 20, 2026
Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham: Were Crystal Palace Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Crystal Palace Fair (-6) | West Ham Fair (+6). xG: 0.73-0.61.
April 19, 2026
Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal: Were Arsenal Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Arsenal Robbery (-37) | Manchester City Lucky (+37). xG: 1.41-1.53.
April 19, 2026
Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland: Were Sunderland Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Sunderland Unlucky (-24) | Aston Villa Lucky (+24). xG: 2.67-1.76.
April 19, 2026
Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Unlucky (-19) | Nottingham Forest Lucky (+19). xG: 1.18-0.36.
April 19, 2026
Everton 1-2 Liverpool: Were Everton Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Everton Unlucky (-25) | Liverpool Lucky (+25). xG: 0.80-1.45.
April 19, 2026
Did Arsenal Deserve Better? Here Is What the Data Says.
Arsenal hit the post twice, generated more xG, and lost anyway. The margins in the title race just got thinner.
April 18, 2026
Chelsea 0-1 Manchester United: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.57-0.29. Chelsea Cursed (-78) | Manchester United Lucky (+78).
April 18, 2026
Tottenham 2-2 Brighton: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.08-0.89. Tottenham Fair (-10) | Brighton Fair (+10).
April 18, 2026
Leeds 3-0 Wolves: CURSD Match Report
xG: 2.78-0.54. Wolves Unlucky (-21) | Leeds Lucky (+21).
April 18, 2026
Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.65-3.03. Newcastle Unlucky (-26) | Bournemouth Lucky (+26).
April 18, 2026
Brentford 0-0 Fulham: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.36-0.74. Brentford Unlucky (-26) | Fulham Lucky (+26).
April 18, 2026
Brentford 0-0 Fulham: Leno, a Post, and 1.36 xG Worth of Nothing
Brentford created 1.36 xG, hit the post, and watched Leno make a 90th-minute save that goes in the vast majority of the time. Fulham had zero shots on target.
April 18, 2026
Wolves Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
Wolverhampton should have nearly double their actual points total. The math is unforgiving.
April 16, 2026
Wolves Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Aren't Even Close.
A 15-point gap between expected and actual tells a story stats rarely tell this loudly.
April 13, 2026
Wolves Are the Premier League's Unluckiest Team. That Does Not Make Them Good.
A 15-point gap between actual and expected, an 8-goal defensive variance, and a luck-adjusted rank that is still 19th.
February 1, 2026
Aston Villa Create 2.4 xG and Lose to 10-Man Brentford
27 shots, 72% possession, a numerical advantage, and a VAR-disallowed goal. Brentford needed 0.4 xG.