Analysis
Weekly deep-dives on team seasons, signal rankings, regression watches, and end-of-year projections across nine leagues. The longer-form side of the CURSD Luck Score.
75 analysis articles published. New analysis daily at 10:00 UTC.
Hellas VeronaSeason analysisThe Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say mid-table. Their actual points say relegation.
The Mets Are Hitting Better Than They're Hitting
New York ranks as MLB's most cursed team, and the numbers confirm it's not all deserved.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 21. That gap is historically cruel.
La Liga's Walking Wounded: Ranking Every Club by Injury Burden
Girona have lost 251 player-games to injury this season. Espanyol have lost 66. The gap between those two numbers is enormous.
FPL Regression Watch — Gameweek 37: Sell, Buy, Hold
8 attackers running ahead of their xG, 8 attackers running behind. The CURSD finishing-variance read on every Premier League team's most-owned FPL assets.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say midtable. Their actual points say dead last.
La Liga's Luck Ledger: Barcelona's 23-Point Mirage and Athletic Club's Missing Rewards
The xPoints model sees a very different table than the one La Liga is showing you.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say they should have 43 points. They have 21.
The Five Unluckiest Teams in World Sport Right Now
Pisa, Athletic Club, Hellas Verona, the Brooklyn Nets, and Wolves are all cursed by the same math.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's expected points say mid-table. Their actual points say dead last.
Athletic Club Are La Liga's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A 10-point gap between expected and actual points tells the story of San Mamés's cruelest season.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 20.
The Ball Isn't Lying, But the Results Are
Ranking every MLB team's batting luck by the gap between wOBA and expected wOBA through mid-May 2026.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 20.
The Canucks Finished Dead Last in Our Luck Index. They Earned Most of It.
Vancouver posted the NHL's worst Luck Index at -47, but the real curse was the team itself.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 20.
The Bundesliga's 16.5-Point Luck Gap Is Hiding Two Different Realities
Wolfsburg's actual record says relegation scrap. Their underlying numbers say comfortable midtable. Bayern's title dominance, meanwhile, came with a 16.5-point tailwind.
FPL Regression Watch — Gameweek 36: Sell, Buy, Hold
8 attackers running ahead of their xG, 8 attackers running behind. The CURSD finishing-variance read on every Premier League team's most-owned FPL assets.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 20.
Regression Watch: The Bundesliga's Luck Ledger Is Overdrawn
Wolfsburg are 12 expected points below their actual total. The math has questions.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 20.
The Five Unluckiest Teams in World Sport Right Now
From Pisa to Brooklyn, the numbers say these five clubs deserve better than their records suggest.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 41 points. The table says 20. Nobody's talking about it.
Regression Watch: Season-End Ledger
The final regular-season numbers are in. The playoffs won't care about your record.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's expected points say mid-table. Their actual points say relegation was never in doubt.
The Hidden Curse of the Premier League: Tottenham's Season of Painful Variance
Spurs are finishing above their xG, defending below their xGA, and still losing. The numbers are a mess.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's expected points say mid-table. Their actual points say relegation was never in doubt.
The NHL's Pythagorean Gap: Who Got Lucky, Who Got Robbed
The Rangers' goal differential said they were mediocre. Their record said it was worse than that.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A: Hellas Verona's 20-Point Gap From Reality
Verona's expected points total is double their actual haul. The numbers are staggering.
The Brooklyn Nets Lost Six More Games Than Math Says They Should Have. Math Was Already Being Generous.
Brooklyn finished 20-62, but even that historic wreckage undersells the chaos.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A: Hellas Verona's Season of Structural Collapse
Verona's expected points total puts them mid-table. Their actual points total puts them in oblivion.
Serie A's Finishing Luck Rankings: Who's Converting and Who's Cursed
Fiorentina have buried 38 goals from 50.7 xG worth of chances. Inter have turned 66.7 xG into 82 goals. The gap is enormous.
FPL Regression Watch — Gameweek 35: Sell, Buy, Hold
8 attackers running ahead of their xG, 8 attackers running behind. The CURSD finishing-variance read on every Premier League team's most-owned FPL assets.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's expected points say mid-table. Their actual points say relegation crisis.
Serie A Regression Watch: Pisa's 20-Point xPoints Deficit and Inter's Charmed Life
The expected-points model sees a different table than the one Serie A is showing you.
The Five Unluckiest Teams in World Sport Right Now
From Pisa to the Premier League, the numbers say these clubs deserve far better than their records show.
Regression Watch: The Season's Biggest Luck Gaps, and What They Mean Now
Brooklyn's Luck Index of -64 led all US sports this season. The playoffs don't care.
Metz Are Ligue 1's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A 12.92-point gap between expected and actual results makes Metz the league's premier hard-luck story.
The Rim Lied to These Teams All Season
Ranking every NBA team's shot-quality luck by the gap between their actual eFG% and what their shot diet should have produced.
The Mets Are 2-6 in One-Run Games and Somehow That's Not Even the Unluckiest Thing About Them
New York ranks as MLB's most cursed team through 30 games, and the numbers are genuinely strange.
La Liga's Defensive Luck Rankings: Who's Leaking Goals They Shouldn't Be?
Athletic Club have conceded 10.3 more goals than expected. Barcelona have conceded 10.6 fewer. The gap between them tells a story.
FPL Regression Watch — Gameweek 34: Sell, Buy, Hold
8 attackers running ahead of their xG, 8 attackers running behind. The CURSD finishing-variance read on every Premier League team's most-owned FPL assets.
La Liga Regression Watch: The Table Is Lying to You by Nearly 10 Points
Valencia are almost 10 xPoints below where they should be. Barcelona are nearly 20 above.
The Five Unluckiest Teams in World Sport Right Now
From Pisa to Brooklyn, five clubs the numbers say deserve far better than their records show.
Regression Watch: Season-End Audit
The NBA and NHL regular seasons are done. The luck ledger is not.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 39 points. The table says 18.
VfL Wolfsburg Are the Bundesliga's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Agree.
Wolfsburg have lost 8.89 points to variance this season. Nobody else in Germany comes close.
The NBA's Close-Game Ledger: Who Got Lucky and Who Got the Bill
Milwaukee went 3-0 in games decided by five points or fewer. Brooklyn went 1-7. Neither record is as real as it feels.
CURSD Projected EOY EPL Standings: Arsenal Edges Manchester City on Goal Difference
With 5 games left, the CURSD model projects Arsenal as champions, Aston Villa as the fourth Champions League side, and Wolves as the team going down. Full table with projected GS, GA, and GD.
FPL Regression Watch — Gameweek 33: Sell, Buy, Hold
8 attackers running ahead of their xG, 8 attackers running behind. The CURSD finishing-variance read on every Premier League team's most-owned FPL assets.
The Rangers Deserved Better. They Also Deserved This.
New York's season was cursed by close-game carnage, but the underlying team wasn't good enough to outrun it.
The Finishing Gap: Premier League Teams Ranked by Shooting Luck
Crystal Palace have left 13.8 goals on the table this season. Tottenham have conjured 7.3 from thin air.
Regression Watch: The Premier League's Luck Ledger Is Wildly Unbalanced
Wolves are sitting 15 points below their expected total. Aston Villa are nearly 16 points above theirs.
The Five Unluckiest Teams in World Sport Right Now
From Pisa to Brooklyn, the numbers say these five clubs deserve far better than their records suggest.
Regression Watch: Season Closes, But the Luck Ledger Stays Open
The NBA and NHL wrapped with massive luck gaps. MLB's early signals are forming. Here's what the numbers buried.
Pisa Are Serie A's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Confirm What Their Fans Already Knew.
A -16.12 xPoints delta makes Pisa the unluckiest side in Italian football this season.
2026 NBA Playoffs: Which Teams Will Surprise, According to the CURSD Score
The Knicks played like a top-2 seed. The Nuggets are built on sand. The CURSD Score quantifies who earned their spot and who got there on credit.
2026 NHL Playoffs: Which Teams Will Surprise, According to the CURSD Score
Vegas at -48, Buffalo at +68. The CURSD Score says some teams earned their spot and some are there on credit.
Athletic Club Are La Liga's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A Luck Index of -69 and a 10-point gap between expected and actual points tell the story of San Mamés this season.
Wolves Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
Wolverhampton should have nearly double their actual points total. The math is unforgiving.
The NBA's Pythagorean Liars
Ranking every team by the gap between their record and what their point differential says it should be.
The Hornets Won 44 Games With 46-Win Talent. The Basketball Gods Noticed.
Charlotte posted the NBA's worst Luck Index and still almost made the playoffs outright.
VfL Wolfsburg Are the Bundesliga's Most Cursed Team. The Math Isn't Even Close.
Wolfsburg have lost 11.6 points to variance this season. No one else in Germany comes close.
Pisa Are Serie A's Most Cursed Team. The Math Says They Should Have Nearly Twice Their Points.
A 16-point gap between expected and actual points makes Pisa the unluckiest side in Italy.
Metz Are Ligue 1's Unluckiest Team. The Numbers Aren't Even Close.
A -11.88 xPoints delta makes Metz the most cursed side in France by a wide margin.
Athletic Club Are La Liga's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A side generating 48 expected points sitting on 38 actual ones. The math is furious.
Wolves Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Aren't Even Close.
A 15-point gap between expected and actual tells a story stats rarely tell this loudly.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A: Fiorentina's Season of Vanishing Goals
Fiorentina have created enough chances for 47 goals. They've scored 37. The table doesn't forgive that.
The Hidden Curse of Ligue 1: Nice's Season of Compound Misery
Nice are not secretly elite. But the data says they should not be this deep in trouble.
Wolves Are the Premier League's Unluckiest Team. That Does Not Make Them Good.
A 15-point gap between actual and expected, an 8-goal defensive variance, and a luck-adjusted rank that is still 19th.
0-2Barcelona Out-xG Atleti 1.16 to 0.45, Lose 0-2 Anyway
18 shots, 58% possession, one red card, and a masterclass in why efficiency beats dominance.
1-2
Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern: The Robbery That Wasn't
Bayern outshot, out-created, and out-xG'd Real Madrid at the Bernabéu. The data has no sympathy.
5-2
Roma Concede Five Goals From 1.5 xG Worth of Chances
Inter needed roughly three half-chances to score five times. Roma were there for all of it.
0-1
Aston Villa Create 2.4 xG and Lose to 10-Man Brentford
27 shots, 72% possession, a numerical advantage, and a VAR-disallowed goal. Brentford needed 0.4 xG.
2-1Barcelona Generate 3.7 xG, Lose at Real Sociedad
25 shots, two VAR interventions, and a 70th-minute equalizer undone within 60 seconds. The Reale Arena had other plans.