Match Reports
One CURSD verdict per match. xG share, finishing delta, keeper impact, shot dominance, set-piece waste, VAR/penalty/red events and discipline, compressed into a single score from Cursed to Blessed.
90 match reports published. New ones every morning at 07:00 UTC.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder 122-113 San Antonio Spurs: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Oklahoma City Thunder 122-113 San Antonio Spurs. eFG: 55%-58%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
2-4
Colorado Avalanche 2-4 Vegas Golden Knights: The Margins Went Against Colorado Avalanche | Playoffs
Colorado Avalanche 2-4 Vegas Golden Knights. SOG: 38-28. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
115-104
New York Knicks 115-104 Cleveland Cavaliers OT: A Fair Result | Playoffs
New York Knicks 115-104 Cleveland Cavaliers in OT. eFG: 53%-49%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
2-1
Tottenham Deserved More. The Data Proves It.
Tottenham created 1.7 xG but lost 2-1. The xG gap of 1.1 tells a different story.
1-1
The Data Agrees: Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City Was About Right
Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City (xG: 2.0-1.7). The numbers match the result.
115-122Oklahoma City Thunder 115-122 San Antonio Spurs OT: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Oklahoma City Thunder 115-122 San Antonio Spurs in OT. eFG: 49%-49%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
2-3
Buffalo Sabres 2-3 MontrΓ©al Canadiens (OT): Buffalo Sabres Robbed by the Numbers | Playoffs
Buffalo Sabres 39 shots, MontrΓ©al Canadiens 25 shots. Final 2-3 in OT. Buffalo Sabres on the wrong side of finishing variance.
1-0
Arsenal 1-0 Burnley: Deserved on Both Sides
Arsenal 1-0 Burnley (xG: 1.0-0.2). The numbers match the result.
94-125Detroit Pistons 94-125 Cleveland Cavaliers: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Detroit Pistons 94-125 Cleveland Cavaliers. eFG: 42%-57%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
3-1
West Ham Lose Despite Matching Newcastle on xG
Newcastle 3-1 West Ham (xG: 1.7-0.9). The numbers match the result.
2-2
Brentford 2-2 Crystal Palace: No Complaints, According to xG
Brentford 2-2 Crystal Palace (xG: 2.0-1.7). The numbers match the result.
1-3
The xG Told a Different Story: Everton 1-3 Sunderland
Everton created 1.1 xG but lost 1-3. The xG gap of 0.3 tells a different story.
1-1
Wolves 1-1 Fulham: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Wolves 1-1 Fulham (xG: 1.4-1.5). The numbers match the result.
3-2
The Data Agrees: Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest Was About Right
Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest (xG: 4.2-1.8). The numbers match the result.
109-139Minnesota Timberwolves 109-139 San Antonio Spurs: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Minnesota Timberwolves 109-139 San Antonio Spurs. eFG: 43%-66%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
94-115Cleveland Cavaliers 94-115 Detroit Pistons: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Cleveland Cavaliers 94-115 Detroit Pistons. eFG: 47%-62%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
4-2
How Liverpool Got Cursed Against Aston Villa
xG: Aston Villa 1.9 - 1.5 Liverpool. Liverpool on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 4-2.
113-117Detroit Pistons 113-117 Cleveland Cavaliers OT: The Margins Went Against Detroit Pistons | Playoffs
Detroit Pistons 113-117 Cleveland Cavaliers in OT. eFG: 50%-54%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
4-3
Colorado Avalanche 4-3 Minnesota Wild (OT): A Fair Result | Playoffs
Colorado Avalanche 4-3 Minnesota Wild in OT. SOG: 34-20. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
3-00.9 xG Gap, Zero Points: Crystal Palace's Night in Numbers
xG: Manchester City 1.6 - 0.7 Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
126-97San Antonio Spurs 126-97 Minnesota Timberwolves: A Fair Result | Playoffs
San Antonio Spurs 126-97 Minnesota Timberwolves. eFG: 59%-44%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
110-115Los Angeles Lakers 110-115 Oklahoma City Thunder: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Los Angeles Lakers 110-115 Oklahoma City Thunder. eFG: 57%-59%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
112-103Cleveland Cavaliers 112-103 Detroit Pistons: The Margins Went Against Detroit Pistons | Playoffs
Cleveland Cavaliers 112-103 Detroit Pistons. eFG: 53%-57%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
1-1
Tottenham 1-1 Leeds: Deserved on Both Sides
Tottenham 1-1 Leeds (xG: 1.3-1.3). The numbers match the result.
114-109Minnesota Timberwolves 114-109 San Antonio Spurs: The Margins Went Against San Antonio Spurs | Playoffs
Minnesota Timberwolves 114-109 San Antonio Spurs. eFG: 50%-51%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
114-144Philadelphia 76ers 114-144 New York Knicks: The Margins Went Against Philadelphia 76ers | Playoffs
Philadelphia 76ers 114-144 New York Knicks. eFG: 55%-68%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
1-1Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle (xG: 1.2-1.6). The numbers match the result.
2-2Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton (xG: 2.7-1.4). The numbers match the result.
2-2Burnley vs Aston Villa: A Fair Fight (2-2)
Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa (xG: 1.8-1.4). The numbers match the result.
108-131Los Angeles Lakers 108-131 Oklahoma City Thunder: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Los Angeles Lakers 108-131 Oklahoma City Thunder. eFG: 56%-65%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
116-109Cleveland Cavaliers 116-109 Detroit Pistons: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Cleveland Cavaliers 116-109 Detroit Pistons. eFG: 66%-50%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
3-0The Data Agrees: Manchester City 3-0 Brentford Was About Right
Manchester City 3-0 Brentford (xG: 3.0-0.2). The numbers match the result.
0-0Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United (xG: 1.3-0.6). The numbers match the result.
3-0Brighton 3-0 Wolves: The Scoreline Lied About Wolves
xG: Brighton 1.6 - 0.5 Wolves. Wolves on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
0-1Fulham Won the xG Battle. Lost the Match.
Fulham created 1.3 xG but lost 0-1. The xG gap of 0.5 tells a different story.
1-1Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea: Deserved on Both Sides
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea (xG: 0.6-0.5). The numbers match the result.
108-115Minnesota Timberwolves 108-115 San Antonio Spurs: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Minnesota Timberwolves 108-115 San Antonio Spurs. eFG: 45%-53%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
94-108Philadelphia 76ers 94-108 New York Knicks: The Margins Went Against Philadelphia 76ers | Playoffs
Philadelphia 76ers 94-108 New York Knicks. eFG: 48%-56%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
125-107Oklahoma City Thunder 125-107 Los Angeles Lakers: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Oklahoma City Thunder 125-107 Los Angeles Lakers. eFG: 64%-57%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
107-97Detroit Pistons 107-97 Cleveland Cavaliers: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Detroit Pistons 107-97 Cleveland Cavaliers. eFG: 57%-46%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
133-95San Antonio Spurs 133-95 Minnesota Timberwolves: The Margins Went Against Minnesota Timberwolves | Playoffs
San Antonio Spurs 133-95 Minnesota Timberwolves. eFG: 59%-45%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
108-102New York Knicks 108-102 Philadelphia 76ers: A Fair Result | Playoffs
New York Knicks 108-102 Philadelphia 76ers. eFG: 55%-54%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
108-90Oklahoma City Thunder 108-90 Los Angeles Lakers: The Margins Went Against Los Angeles Lakers | Playoffs
Oklahoma City Thunder 108-90 Los Angeles Lakers. eFG: 57%-47%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
111-101Detroit Pistons 111-101 Cleveland Cavaliers: The Margins Went Against Cleveland Cavaliers | Playoffs
Detroit Pistons 111-101 Cleveland Cavaliers. eFG: 50%-54%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
102-104San Antonio Spurs 102-104 Minnesota Timberwolves: The Margins Went Against San Antonio Spurs | Playoffs
San Antonio Spurs 102-104 Minnesota Timberwolves. eFG: 51%-51%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
137-98New York Knicks 137-98 Philadelphia 76ers: A Fair Result | Playoffs
New York Knicks 137-98 Philadelphia 76ers. eFG: 74%-49%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
3-3Everton Deserved a Point. The Data Says So.
Everton 3-3 Manchester City (xG: 2.8-1.4). The numbers match the result.
1-30.1 xG Gap, Zero Points: Chelsea's Night in Numbers
xG: Chelsea 1.9 - 2.1 Nottingham Forest. Chelsea on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 1-3.
1-229 Shots to 9. Tampa Bay Still Lost. This Shouldn't Be Possible.
Montreal scored 2 goals on 9 shots. Tampa scored 1 on 29. The probability of this outcome: 4.65%.
114-102
Cleveland Cavaliers 114-102 Toronto Raptors: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Cleveland Cavaliers 114-102 Toronto Raptors. eFG: 51%-48%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
116-94
Detroit Pistons 116-94 Orlando Magic: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Detroit Pistons 116-94 Orlando Magic. eFG: 61%-48%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
9-6Colorado Avalanche 9-6 Minnesota Wild: The Margins Went Against Minnesota Wild | Playoffs
Colorado Avalanche 9-6 Minnesota Wild. SOG: 43-36. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
1-2Tampa Bay Lightning 1-2 MontrΓ©al Canadiens: The Margins Went Against Tampa Bay Lightning | Playoffs
Tampa Bay Lightning 1-2 MontrΓ©al Canadiens. SOG: 29-9. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
1-2The Data Agrees: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham Was About Right
Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham (xG: 0.3-1.0). The numbers match the result.
3-2The Data Agrees: Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool Was About Right
Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool (xG: 2.1-0.9). The numbers match the result.
3-0Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace: No Complaints, According to xG
Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace (xG: 2.3-0.8). The numbers match the result.
100-109Boston Celtics 100-109 Philadelphia 76ers: The Margins Went Against Boston Celtics | Playoffs
Boston Celtics 100-109 Philadelphia 76ers. eFG: 47%-54%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
3-0How West Ham Got Cursed Against Brentford
xG: Brentford 2.1 - 0.7 West Ham. West Ham on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
3-0Arsenal 3-0 Fulham: Fulham Left Wondering What Went Wrong
Arsenal 3-0 Fulham (xG: 3.0-0.4). The numbers match the result.
1-1Wolves Deserved More. The Data Proves It. (Wolves 1-1 Sunderland)
xG: Wolves 1.8 - 0.6 Sunderland. Wolves on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 1-1.
3-1Newcastle 3-1 Brighton: Brighton Left Wondering What Went Wrong
Newcastle 3-1 Brighton (xG: 3.3-1.6). The numbers match the result.
3-1Leeds 3-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Fair (-11) | Leeds Fair (+11). xG: 1.65-0.53.
110-98
Minnesota Timberwolves 110-98 Denver Nuggets: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Minnesota Timberwolves 110-98 Denver Nuggets. eFG: 49%-52%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
106-93Philadelphia 76ers 106-93 Boston Celtics: The Margins Went Against Boston Celtics | Playoffs
Philadelphia 76ers 106-93 Boston Celtics. eFG: 50%-49%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
89-140Atlanta Hawks 89-140 New York Knicks: The Margins Went Against Atlanta Hawks | Playoffs
Atlanta Hawks 89-140 New York Knicks. eFG: 43%-66%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
5-2
Anaheim Ducks 5-2 Edmonton Oilers: The Margins Went Against Edmonton Oilers | Playoffs
Anaheim Ducks 5-2 Edmonton Oilers. SOG: 31-27. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
5-2
Minnesota Wild 5-2 Dallas Stars: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Minnesota Wild 5-2 Dallas Stars. SOG: 21-23. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
2-1Manchester United 2-1 Brentford: Were Brentford Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Brentford Robbery (-45) | Manchester United Lucky (+45). xG: 1.36-1.17.
1-0Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle: Were Newcastle Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Newcastle Cursed (-53) | Arsenal Lucky (+53). xG: 0.64-0.91.
2-1West Ham 2-1 Everton: Were Everton Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Everton Robbery (-42) | West Ham Lucky (+42). xG: 1.17-1.35.
3-1Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace: Were Crystal Palace Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Crystal Palace Cursed (-69) | Liverpool Lucky (+69). xG: 0.91-2.32.
0-1Wolves 0-1 Tottenham: Were Wolves Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Wolves Robbery (-39) | Tottenham Lucky (+39). xG: 0.62-1.05.
1-0Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa: Were Aston Villa Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Aston Villa Robbery (-37) | Fulham Lucky (+37). xG: 1.06-0.71.
0-5Sunderland 0-5 Nottingham Forest: Were Sunderland Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Sunderland Cursed (-55) | Nottingham Forest Lucky (+55). xG: 0.70-1.10.
0-1Burnley 0-1 Manchester City: Were Burnley Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Fair (-11) | Manchester City Fair (+11). xG: 0.63-3.36.
2-2Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds: Were Bournemouth Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Bournemouth Unlucky (-23) | Leeds Lucky (+23). xG: 1.65-0.81.
3-0Brighton 3-0 Chelsea: Were Chelsea Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Chelsea Fair (-12) | Brighton Fair (+12). xG: 2.14-0.37.
0-0Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham: Were Crystal Palace Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Crystal Palace Fair (-6) | West Ham Fair (+6). xG: 0.73-0.61.
4-3
Bruins Outplay Sabres, Lose Anyway in Buffalo
Boston generates the better of the play, trails by a goal, and heads home down a game in the series.
2-1Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal: Were Arsenal Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Arsenal Robbery (-37) | Manchester City Lucky (+37). xG: 1.41-1.53.
4-3Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland: Were Sunderland Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Sunderland Unlucky (-24) | Aston Villa Lucky (+24). xG: 2.67-1.76.
4-1Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Unlucky (-19) | Nottingham Forest Lucky (+19). xG: 1.18-0.36.
1-2Everton 1-2 Liverpool: Were Everton Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Everton Unlucky (-25) | Liverpool Lucky (+25). xG: 0.80-1.45.
2-1Did Arsenal Deserve Better? Here Is What the Data Says.
Arsenal hit the post twice, generated more xG, and lost anyway. The margins in the title race just got thinner.
0-1Chelsea 0-1 Manchester United: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.57-0.29. Chelsea Cursed (-78) | Manchester United Lucky (+78).
2-2Tottenham 2-2 Brighton: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.08-0.89. Tottenham Fair (-10) | Brighton Fair (+10).
3-0Leeds 3-0 Wolves: CURSD Match Report
xG: 2.78-0.54. Wolves Unlucky (-21) | Leeds Lucky (+21).
1-2Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.65-3.03. Newcastle Unlucky (-26) | Bournemouth Lucky (+26).
0-0Brentford 0-0 Fulham: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.36-0.74. Brentford Unlucky (-26) | Fulham Lucky (+26).
0-0Brentford 0-0 Fulham: Leno, a Post, and 1.36 xG Worth of Nothing
Brentford created 1.36 xG, hit the post, and watched Leno make a 90th-minute save that goes in the vast majority of the time. Fulham had zero shots on target.